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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25
February 2014: -
On 24
February 2014, FII Bought INR 266.87 crs and DII Sold INR 248.49 crs
We had a
gap down on 27th January 2014 from 6263 to 6186. After US market
rise last night, we are going to see the partial filling up of this gap with
gap up only. As of now SGX Nifty is suggesting for a gap up of 30 points. This kind
of runaway gap normally takes out all trading opportunity in the same direction
of gap.
It has
gained over 0.50% yesterday and India VIX came at 14.35. We must note that most
of the time fear low comes at 14 historically. Zone of 13-14 may be enough for
the bottom for VIX. My views for nearer resistance and sell off are based on
the patterns emerging on global indices. This situation will be clear in few days’
time.
Nothing can
be sure while we go in trade but it is likely to form a short to medium term
top very sooner. It has technical trading resistances at 6212, 6242 and final
resistance at 6262. Anyone is likely to be under test. I cannot deny the
possibility of even 6262 levels.
It does not
matter what short term charts are telling us. Long term charts are issuing the
signs of warning for a brutal sell off of wave “C”. This can come any day and
anytime. Hence, keep your eye on global market too. Reason can be anything for
sell off and this kind of signal cannot be ignored because is raising form
little longer and already entered in over bought zone.
Nifty
charts are suggesting that as long as it is above 6150 there cannot be anything
to be worry for bulls so far. Let us see what is coming. I find options as
safer way to play contra shorts as technical signals are still for buy-and-hold
mode. We have derivative expiry tomorrow.
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Strategy
for Nifty March future – At a cross of
6205, it is likely to test 6240 which will be achievable by today morning. Scope
of further rise or trading rise will be very limited if it open with gap up
near 6260 as indicated by SGX Nifty. So far it is a buy but RSI goes on
critical resistance line. It may be wild a day before derivative expiry. I am
lot interested in finding signals for short and then applying on it. If fall
comes it can be really huge. Do not short in the absence of strong sell signal.
S&P
500
(USA) – It hit high t 1858 and
closed at 1848 which is mid-point of intraday range. It is looking like a fake
breakout. CBEO VIX is moving higher from 14. Take a note that VIX is at the
same levels as of 1810 and this is usually first indicator to give sign of top.
Still, in US market bears have nothing to do when bulls goes in command. It is
looking like a short term top or very close to short term top. I have noticed
an interesting pattern. This is only the first time that S&P gave intraday
breakout but not closing near day’s high. I am still shy for long deals.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
