30 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support may emerge at 6700-6650 levels after three days of consecutive drop on Nifty. Today’s trading will be decisive before 16th May 2014.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 April 2014: -

On 28 April 2014, FII Bought INR 287.98 crs and DII Sold INR 550.89 crs

We saw three day drop in a row in Indian market. This is a normal and expected profit taking before election result. I still believe that ‘optimism’ will come to buy this market from any lower levels. This level can be at 6700 or 6650 or anything levels, that remains different question.

If we are in real bull market then today should be litmus test for bulls. We may have a chance for rise on forth session after three days of fall. Nifty has closed below 20 DMA after more than two months. This will keep stock price under pressure but recovery is designed to come. Retrenchment suggests that Nifty either may recovery from 6700 or from 6650 for once.

We have trading holiday tomorrow. This means that weekly bottom will come today or max by Friday. I suggest that one should avoid shorting this market on lower side. We cannot say that election optimism will end any sooner.  

For today’s trading, 6700-6650 will offer good trading support. We can expect a trading bounce from lower levels. Let us see how it comes or will this come or not.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is hinting for a higher start by 20 points right now. Technical charts are suggesting that as long as 6740 holds, this market can bounce. Better strength is expected only above 6820 levels. Suppose, if it crosses above 6820 then one can expect a quick fire move towards 6900+ levels but those may come next week. If it comes this week then it will surprise me. Still, it is not a good idea to short near 6740 without decisive break.  

S&P 500 (USA) – As expected, it is hitting 1880 levels. As long as it is staying above 50 DMA i.e. 1858, we can say that market is in bull’s hand. I feel that cross above 1885 will again generate the possibility of 1900+ levels. So far, nothing is bad for bulls. We can hope rise and more rises. Scope is not there for any shorting activity. We may see a top sooner and a sell off will also hit in May month but so far, it looks like we may have some more rise. We can trade long but be cautious at higher levels and do not forget to add short. 

29 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 20 DMA support came at 6740 now. If it sustain below 6740 then it will test lower levels. Trend may not change even after any big sell off. Key short term support – 6650-6630!!!

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For 29 April 2014: -

On 28 April 2014, FII Bought INR 77.02 crs and DII Sold INR 370.53 crs

Nifty has not done much yesterday but it is still coming very near to 20 DMA support slowly. As of now 20 DMA comes at 6740 levels and Nifty closed at 6760. So, it is just 20 odd points. How important is this? Just take a note that Nifty has never traded below 20 DMA since 18^th February 2014. I never say buy or sell based on moving average crossover. It just indicates indecision. This is important.  Market behavior changes from a clear uptrend to indecision.  

Question is what makes me clearer. If you look at momentum technical indicators then you can see a conclusion about losing momentum. Money flow is also confirming such behavior. I will focus on follow up trades and 20 DMA right now.

I am still repeating that ‘optimism’ will come to buy some levels. I suggest splitting this 14 days period in to two equal half. We may see correction or consolidation or silence in first 7 trading days to throw weak bulls. After that, bulls will take positions based on their ‘Optimism’ which will be bullish and may be sharply bullish. So start the count from 28 May 2014 but do not be in hurry to conclude for top and do not even try to buy bottom sooner. Buy low only next week.

For today’s trading, 6740-6730 will offer good trading support. If it starts trading below 6740 with conviction then we can expect test of 6700 to 6650 by this week itself. On higher side bulls will impress only if it can stay above 6780-6790.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – It has two important supports, one is at 6790 and another at 6765. Low volume in choppy market offer some blow up in trades which we saw yesterday with sudden rise and fall. Right now, I suggest shorting it if it starts trading below 6790. Expect target near 6765 levels. It will have stiff resistance at 6850 levels.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P hit a low at 1851 yesterday but closed at 1869 with last hour run. It has 50 DMA at 1858 which was broken once with conviction but later on won by bulls. So, is it a bullish reversal? Yes, we cannot deny the possibility. Yesterday’s trading range was nearly 27 points so it may be a hint that we may see levels near 1900 again. Still, it is a possibility not a trade so far. Right now, charts are respecting previous supports more than moving average. I will not short this market any more right now unless it either come near 1900 or go below 1850. I am not saying that fall will not come. I am saying that bulls have bought time before fall now. Well, they can save for 2-3 trading sessions more.   

28 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect trading support at 6732-6722 levels. Just for this week, this market may be sell-on-rise market. Trend may not change even after any big sell off.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 April 2014: -

On 25 April 2014, FII Bought INR 295.01 crs and DII Sold INR 417.30 crs

Nifty opened with a high point on May series with new all-time high on Friday which came as 6869.85 but failed to give any impressive close. It has closed below 6800 to make chart weaker. I can apply ‘Sell in May and go home’ for rest other market but can I say same for Indian market? This month series has crucial date as 16^th May. Market participants will take positions based on their expectations on the outcome of general election.

Most general pattern suggests that pre-election rally used to continue in post-election weeks too. It is true for 4 out of last five elections. In this way, I strongly suggest that we can expect market following this behavior this time too. It gives me a sense that market can come to 20 DMA at 6732-6722 as maximum possible downside levels. Any break below 6722 will give us another levels near 6660 levels.

‘Optimism’ will definitely buy the low of this market. So, do not conclude for reversal in trend till 16^th May. I can sense for weakness in trend for this week but this may not continue for long. Including today we have 14 trading session till 16^th May. I suggest splitting this 14 days period in to two equal half. We may see correction or consolidation or silence in first 7 trading days to throw weak bulls. After that, bulls will take positions based on their ‘Optimism’ which will be bullish and may be sharply bullish. So start the count from today but do not be in hurry to conclude for top and do not even try to buy bottom sooner. Buy low only next week.

For today’s trading, 6722 will offer good trading support. It is odd 60 points away. So, we still have scope to see dip. Remember, this dip is coming for just one purpose. The purpose is to throw weak bulls. I have already suggested shorting this market at higher levels with a possible trading top at 6878. It was explain on Friday how it comes.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – We may see a soft opening for today’s session. Crucial support will be at 6780 and 6765 levels. I feel that these levels may be tested sooner now. Take a note that we will see some wild fluctuation in premium value of Nifty May month future for this week. Target and stop loss will be adjusted based on spot value. I like to see if Nifty spot breaks 6722 on lower side or will it recover before that.

S&P 500 (USA) – I talked about two figures on Friday. First was 1885 and another was 1872. Market saved my stop loss point of 1885 and given me desired break down below my threshold point of 1872. Charts are suggesting for next logical target at 1850. I believe for the break below 1850 too and we will see it moving towards 1800 sooner. I can see warning sign in NASDAQ composite too. It is suggesting me to prepare for tech melt down after earning season. Currently, it is at 4070. I see a high possibility for crash target as 3700 to 3600. Stay short and enjoy the week. Market is close to confirm for ‘Sell in May and go home’. Take a note that crucial 50 DMA is now at 1858.  

25 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Stiff Elliott wave resistance @ 6878 levels of Nifty spot. 6800 is very crucial support to watch, if breaks then we may expect some pullback next week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 April 2014: -

On 23 April 2014, FII Bought INR 767.61 crs and DII Sold INR 533.88 crs

Nifty hit 6861.60 as a new all-time high on expiry day. With this, we got rock solid close on monthly chart. Now, we are in May series trade. Election factors may dominate the trend. Elliott wave give one resistance @ 6878 as shown above. If not then prepare 100% of wave 3 length to repeat in wave 5. That will give 6993.

So, near to 6878, we are perhaps in most crucial levels. I must say that there may be certain limitation on wave specific resistances at all-time high. Simple reason is that market is driven by momentum whenever it dictates at new all-time high. Momentum factor is still stronger. Do you know that 200 DMA for Nifty is at 6110 which is well 730 points away? It means that Nifty is more than 10% away from 200 DMA. This is due to sharp rally without correction. This situation may continue till 16 May 2014 at least or may be longer than that. 20 DMA support is at 6722. As long as Nifty is above 6722, market may just try to hit higher with few pause or intraday dip. May series will be full of action and may be more than what one can think right now.

For today’s trading, 6800 will act as support but that is also 40 points away. This keeps the room for some initial dip. 6824 may also emerge at intraday support. If it closes below 6800 then we may head towards 6722 in next week. Somehow, this market may try to on silence before election result. On higher side, 6862 to 6878 will as stiff trading resistances.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – We may see a flat opening. Immediate trading resistance will be at 6915. Cross above may generate the possibility of higher test with target somewhere near to 6930-6935 first. Technical support will be at 6880 levels. It will be safer to trade short below 6880 levels. We may have limited trading opportunity at higher side. Do not trade a choppy situation. We may see good opportunity only in second half.

S&P 500 (USA) – It again hit near to 1885 and forming almost a double top pattern on hourly chart. Here is a caution for shorts, if it breaks above 1885 then simply stop out. As long as it is below 1885, I will advocate for ‘May correction mode’. Take a note that, if it will not break 1572 today then we may not see significant correction for first half of May month. Correction may be in denial mode and it may come only in second half of May. All I can say is that we need a sooner crack down to bet for big correction. Above 1885, it will try to hit 1900 first and then may be 1950 next.    

23 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We have derivative expiry for April month series. Key support will be at 6800-6780. Race for more new all-time high will continue as long as it holds 6800-6780.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 April 2014: -

On 22 April 2014, FII Bought INR 162.93 crs and DII Sold INR 298.46 crs

I was expecting this kind of dead day near top. It was completely useless to trade in index. We have derivative expiry for this month of trade and tomorrow is a trading holiday. This combination will make trading move interesting. There is no sign of pullback yet. If pullback comes then it will based on derivative expiry only.

Based on technical chart, expiry will favour bulls as long as it holds 6800 levels. If not too big then also, Nifty may try to come near to 6850 levels as long as it holds 6800 levels. Choppy trading sessions are bringing sell threshold closer and higher.

Conclusion for the day is that we can see support emerging in the area of 6800-6780 itself. As long as it holds above 6800 we may see pressure on short position. This may drive another rally. I can think shorting below 6800. Any higher levels are not looking good to short.

I can clearly say, avoid index trading if it remains choppy. One needs to search trading opportunity in stocks. We may see some good activities in mid cap and small cap stocks. It may not be necessarily good for bulls. Some stocks might favour bears on expiry day.  

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Strategy for Nifty May future – It is trading with heavy premium of 65-70 points. Above 6900 it will try to add 25-30 points more on higher side. Key support will be at 6865-6860. To be on safer side, one can think to trade in short direction if and only if it breaks 6860 levels. It may be complex to trade today but trading opportunity must be there. Range of 6900 to 6860 may be smaller to say for expiry day. So, we have good chance of breaking on either side.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was said yesterday that Crossover of 1872 may generate a possibility for the test of 1885 and then 1900. We got top almost at 1885 and then a slip in second half. 70% chances is that we got the top of this cycle by yesterday itself and we should see a moderate to big red day today. First job for S&P is to close below 1872 and then only we can able to conclude for further course of action for trade. I say, add short and hold short. We are heading towards ‘sell in May and go away’.   

22 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may again knock for new all-time high. Derivative expiry may play key roles now. Technical support = 6780. Participate less using index now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 April 2014: -

On 21 April 2014, FII Bought INR 212.85 crs and DII Sold INR 217.66 crs

I was expecting Nifty to come near to 6820 and we got this. I was already planned not buying at 6820. Even today, I will not opt to buy at 6820 unless it really stands well above 6820 with conviction. I am not saying that it is giving signal to short but it is to avoid right now.

VIX is at scary levels and volume is diminishing. FIIs are also not participating well from past few days. Remember, expiry for April series will be only tomorrow as we have holiday on Thursday due to parliamentary election. So far, we saw short squeeze rally and now it may be turn for those who are having long. Future course of action will largely depend on roll over to May series. Many traders might opt to forward their long.

Conclusion for the day is that we can see support emerging in the area of 6800-6780 itself. As long as it holds above 6780 we may see pressure on short position. This may drive another rally. I can think shorting below 6780 or at some extreme high point in search of top.

I can clearly say, avoid index trading if it remains choppy. One needs to search trading opportunity in stocks.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – So far, it is running above 6825 levels which might be a good thing. As long as it is above 6825 we may have a chance to see levels of 6880. Some quick moves might come today. In spite of trading signals, I prefer to avoid trading in index. I am concerns with volume factor. I am expecting some quicker intraday move at some point but direction can be equally wild. Let us see what is coming. If you are trading then time has come to switch to May series now.

S&P 500 (USA) – It came on dot at 1872 but not crossed yet. This is going to be a challenging level. Now I have some clarity. This bounce came from 1815 and it may have a possible top at 1872. If it fails to cross above 1872 then we have a good chance to see lower levels near 1850. One may opt to short here with smaller possible stop loss as risk – reward ratio will be great. Cross over of 1872 may generate a possibility for the test of 1885 and then 1900. I feel that 1872 may be a point to fail.  

21 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now, next is to challenge all-time high at 6820. Technical support for trade is at 6750-6730. Derivative expiry may play key roles now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 April 2014: -

On 17 April 2014, FII Sold INR 433.40 crs and DII Sold INR 122.75 crs

We got expected up move on last trading day with good reversal. In continuation, we can expect this rise to extend to make a new all-time high. It is just 40 points away from those levels. At least it can go lot closer. This rise depends on short covering before derivative expiry. It is likely to continue till expiry day. It is not giving sign for weakness yet at higher levels but we may prefer to avoid long neat 6820 for once.  

Short term support is still at 6640 levels which were saved twice in recent dips. Most promising day for bulls was last trading session. Today’s rise depends on follow up buying. From past 12 trading sessions, market is still in range and that gives me a clue that lots of shorts might be in the system. It may drive short squeezes.

Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will get support at 6750 to 6730 levels. On higher side, I am expecting a move towards 6820 levels. It may come very near if not hitting it as a dot. For caution, I will not initiate long if market goes negative or open negative. Key is that it should spend positive for good time to conclude for long.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have focused on 6800+ levels and we got that. Technical charts are suggesting that we have some more upside left. One can prefer to trade long if it stand tall above 6820-6825 levels. On higher side it can expect levels of 6880-6900 if we see fulfillment of trading buy conditions. We have technical support in the range of 6770-6760. Either buys at bulls’ crossover or from bulls support. There is no choice to buy from in between levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – I was expecting 1872 by Thursday night but it gave a high almost at 1870. I still see room for upside. There is nothing critical at this point of time. I still expect the test of 1872+ levels at the beginning of this week’s trade. Trading support will be at 1854-1850 levels. On higher side we can expect it hitting at 1872 first. Now, suppose if it sustain well above 1872 then it can try to challenge 1885 levels again. I think that we should first focus on 1872 before concluding for the possibility of 1900 or 19XX levels. 

17 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical support – 6660-6640. Trade long for recovery if Nifty spends time above 6700 levels. It is on demand support line now. Final battle for bulls & bear now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 April 2014: -

On 16 April 2014, FII Sold INR 44.69 crs and DII Sold INR 347.70 crs

Nifty hit a low at 6660 while technical support was at 6640. One needs to note that 20 DMA is also at 6660. This gives me a sense that it almost at support after three days of fall. Today will be fifth trading session after hitting an all-time high at 6820. If primary trend is bullish then we can hope for recovery today.   

In other sense, I do not like to short near 6660 – 6670. It is better to wait for the break below 6640 to trade short now. I have said this yesterday only in my intraday updates everywhere. I am just avoiding risk for unnecessary trades here at these levels. If it breaks 6640 then I will catch shorts happily else it is a market which should be bought for recovery. Note that if recovery comes as its true strength then it can be bigger. We have long weekend ahead.

Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will get support at 6660 to 6640 levels. Let it stand above 6700 to trade on long side. Remember, efforts will come from both side. Bulls want to take it above 6750 and bear want it to bring below 6640. No one will give up so easily in this range. Today’s trading session will be most important before expiry.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have said yesterday that we may have a chance to buy near 6700 levels for once. I stand with my view. If it stays above 6700, nifty future may be a buy with small stop loss. Important technical support will be at 6680 and 6660 levels. We may have small gap up but that gap up should not fill. It will be better to wait for first 60 minutes to conclude for trend. It is very likely that we will see decisive move only in second half. Confidence will grow if it spend time above 6730 levels only

S&P 500 (USA) – I said, “There is no point to stay short above 1840 levels of S&P 500.” It moved in line with expectation and surpassed 50 DMA. Most important is that we got closing at 1862. Next logical target will be 1872 which may come by tonight. You can name it as weekend rally. Charts are saying that this rise will as long as it is above 1850. I am repeating my analysis just as the past time when it was rising and above 1860. It is replica condition now. Bigger question – Can it hit 1900? It is not easy to answer; I like to see today’s market too to get some charting development. One thing is for sure, if today’s closing goes negative then 1899 would be a confirmed top. 

16 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Support – 6700, Break will give us levels of 6640. On higher side resistance will be at 6775-6800. A pullback before election result may be possible.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 April 2014: -

On 15 April 2014, FII Sold INR 21.63 crs and DII Sold INR 278.27 crs

Last night Wall Street rebounded strongly from lower levels. On other hand Indian market looks tired now. FIIs have sold for second day in a row. I do not give much value to those but it is still in consideration. My point is that Indian market has decoupled itself from global movement. So, we may not have any good impact of US rebound. Indian market will react with its own data, earning and political development.

India VIX hit 32.62 as high yesterday. Technical charts are suggesting that as long as NIFTY is below 6775 we have a chance of heading towards 6700 levels. Short term and meaningful support will be only at 6640 which were almost on test on 7^th April 2014. This uptrend will intact as long as it is above 6640. This does not mean that one can buy here. Note that after a long time we saw under performance in mid cap and small cap indices. Even Bank Nifty has added weakness which was strong point of recent rally.

Conclusion for the day is that Nifty will face technical resistance at 6775 and 6800 levels. In the down side, It will get support at 6700. Break of 6700 will invite move towards 6640. Short on weakness will be better strategy for trading. Pick the stock which is trading with weakness. Like, we picked Tata Motors yesterday.

TCS, WIPRO and Reliance will deliver their quarterly numbers this week. After Infosys, I am not expecting any positive surprises with any of these stocks.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – Trading index was not my choice from past many trading sessions. Now, it seems that we may have some better opportunity. It will face trading resistance at 6770-6780. Opening is likely to be on lower side. If it breaks 6730 then we will see quick move towards 6710-6700 levels. I like to short the rise. We may have a chance to buy near 6700 depending on technical indicators for intraday. We will get a confirmation about tired in Nifty by today itself. If not then prepare for another round of buying which can hit in few days. I feel that we will get some sell off before further rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – I was expecting a bounce coming near to 1840. What has surprised me is that it took swing again from support of 1815. This kind of pattern generally creates momentum for some more bounce. More importantly it has closed above 1842. We have a chance to say that 1815 is a short term bottom. When I am saying short term bottom then I mean for 3-4 days of cycle. There is no point to stay short above 1840 levels of S&P 500. I need to repeat that it is expected bounce so far. We can count on strength only if it manages to close above 50 DMA and this level is at 1846.75.   

15 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Infosys number and guidance will dominate trend. Nifty may challenge 6820 on higher side. Profit taking from higher levels is likely. Support – 6740.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 April 2014: -

On 11 April 2014, FII Sold INR 362.29 crs and DII Bought INR 364.92 crs

No doubt that it has digested the pain of global weakness and stand well. Now, we have Infosys figures coming today before market opening. Infosys ADR jumped nearly 5% at NASDAQ last night. This might be buying by well-informed traders who took position before result. It is very likely that Infosys will deliver something which can boost stock price.

VIX comes in the range of 29-30 levels. Big funds like FIIs might have hedge their position using VIX. It has odd behavior since 6400 levels of Nifty. I would not be surprised if it tested 30 on dot or might cross also.

Indian market has no impact of global weakness in last few weeks. Now, we need to see the reactions towards quarterly earnings. Along with Infosys, we will have quarterly numbers of TCS, HCL, WIPRO and Reliance too coming this week. We will have WPI and CPI number coming today. We may not have any negative impact of negative IIP number which came on Friday. I feel that market night not remember negatives in this mood.  

For today’s session, Nifty is likely to open little higher nearly 6800 levels. There is no point to short as long as it holds 6750-6740 levels. Higher levels will be determined by Infosys number and its guidance. 6820 may be challenged again.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – in the name of correction, even 50-60 points of Nifty remains big. I avoided forwarding short on weekend. Well, we have a very short week. Nifty April Future may opening higher above 6800 levels and then it will face resistance at 6830 or at 6860+ levels. So far, nothing looks bad. Only surprises can drag market lower from higher levels. I will take call only after knee-jerk reaction of Infosys number. Still, trading index is not my choice.

S&P 500 (USA) – it found support at 1815 but I still feel that fall has not done yet. Yesterday’s bounce may be only an intermediate bounce. We may see some more higher levels today like 1840 but it can sold at higher levels. I still say, as long as it is below 1840-1842 levels, it can fall again to break 1800 levels in the days to come. Take a note that US market is trading below 50 days moving average after a long time. 18001798 may be decisive support. If that breaks then we will see bright possibility for hitting 1740 too. It may happen sooner or later.  

11 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Global sell off will spoil bull’s party in Indian market. Technical support is at 6750 and then at 6700. We may have point to buy from lower levels. Words of caution must go stronger !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 April 2014: -

On 10 April 2014, FII Bought INR 342.75 crs and DII Bought INR 13.45 crs

6819, that’s what we saw yesterday as high and then we got sell off in just last 30 minutes. Still, there is nothing which we can say as a sign of warning except over bought ranges. Now we got severe sell off in US market last night which was expected. I have added few shorts in this anticipation.

VIX comes very close to 30 levels. In general, this kind of VIX levels is known for bottom but we are getting top. Pure charting suggests that as long as 6700-6675 holds on closing basis, this market can bounce. So the big question is will we go below 6675 in global sell off. We are going to get many answers today.  

It is likely to open with gap down now. It may be of 20-30 points. Last year also I have said about summer sell off which is a much known cycle. It does not mean that summer sell off will come from exactly 01 May. Few were crying from 01 May last year saying it is not coming, it is not coming. This kind of sell off may come on approximate basis.

If correction comes in Indian market then it will be good. Logically, pre-election sell off can make a room for result day rally. Every single Asian market is down by more than 2% except China. From past many weeks I have forecasted for sell off in NIKKEI. It has broken 14000 levels and preparing for massive sells off.

Today is last trading day of the week and we have just three trading days for next week. For today, Nifty will get support at 6750 and then at 6700 levels. Trade in stock specific way and pick weak stocks for shorting. Do not worry; there may be too many short candidates.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have added short on Nifty Future yesterday and carried. My expected target is 6750 and 6710. Once those come then I will book and will to find a point to buy from low. IIP data will come after market hour and our market will open directly on Tuesday only. It involves high in holding position. Nifty April future will open near 6780 and then it will get support either at 6750 or at 6710 only. If you do not have short then do not add short at lower levels. Indian market is clearly not as weak as US market.

S&P 500 (USA) – This is what I was expecting. A bounce towards 1870 and then another brutal sell off. Finally, S&P 500 closed below 1840 after a long time. It is just the beginning of first big correction of recent time. It is almost confirm on technical chart that it can finally end up somewhere near 1730-1740 zone. We have some mini pause near 1800 but that is also little far from here. It is looking like a summer sell off. It just came little early. Now technical resistance will be at 1840+ levels. Whole global market will start bleeding in very bad way very soon. We have already added short on S&P yesterday itself. 

10 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another life time high and another hope of momentum. Focus on mid cap and small cap stocks for trades. As long as 6700 holds Nifty will try to go in the zone of 6950-7000 levels. Words of caution must go stronger !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 April 2014: -

On 09 April 2014, FII Bought INR 1043.86 crs and DII Sold INR 463.78 crs

It gave another shoot up to test even 6800+ levels on Nifty. It was very expected after a bull’s gap up. Any market which is touching life time high and staying near to that is bullish sign. I am dealing long side but definitely thrilled. It is not meaningful to talk about any target. Remember that it is not easy to stand against odds. Indian market has entered in a phase where it can opt for rapid moves.

VIX is near to 27 and there may be so many divergences. This is highly overbought market. All facts are true but first priority goes to price. It is only the price which pays to a trade. This price pattern of stocks is up. I feel that lot of shorts might have added in the anticipation of correction in past one week. I was also one such. I exited my shorts in the morning hour and added long and may be too many longs. Idea was simple, cover your short before others do and then opt long to take advantage for short covering.

It does not mean that market is comfortable. In fact it is going to be more complex now. In pure charting term, Nifty can stretch towards 6910-7000 levels as long as it is staying above 6700. I am taking this this market in a step wise manner as I know that this market will punish the bulls when they will least expect about it.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I still ignore trades on Nifty future. If I have to be bullish then I must pick a index which has better intensity so I picked Bank Nifty yesterday to play long. It gave good range to trade yesterday. For today’s trading you can expect soft opening. It is a buy as long as it holds 6800 levels. If it breaks 6800 then one must avoid long. Trade long if it spends time above 6850. I still suggest that pick strong stocks rather than trading index. Take this as a reference. I cannot give any importance of positive news flow. It used to come after every rally. I must say that above 6850 Nifty future can go as big as 6900 plus levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – I was expecting this bounce near 1860-1870 zone and we got this. US market remains most disciplined one for technicians. We got closing at 1872. I can still say that there may be little more bounce from here too. It forces me to say that 1884 may again come in to play. It is going to be interesting to see tonight. Question is will it give up from higher levels tonight. Remember, last night it has closed at highest point of day after a real sound closing. I always say to focus on the second day of recovery to conclude about follow up trades. Technical support is only ay 1840. 

09 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Indian market may take a gap up even after big sell-off in global Indices. VIX is at 25 +. Avoid buying at higher levels till Friday. As long as it holds 6640, top cannot be confirmed.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 09 April 2014: -

On 07 April 2014, FII Bought INR 703.71 crs and DII Sold INR 1081.36 crs

There were times in past also when Indian market has decoupled itself from global moves. It has done this time too but in another direction. Last year when all indices were breaking all-time high, Indian market has refused. This time, election fever holds the key and Sensex and Nifty refused to show any big impact of global sell off yet.

I must be clear that US market may be one the verge of 10% dip. We may have two out of three chances for this to happen. Question is that can Indian market able to resist so much? It is not about US indices only. I have quoted few week back about NIKKEI too that if it breaks 14000 then it will be clearly bearish. Sooner or later, it is going to break 14000 marks.

It is definitely not easy to say for buy when VIX is at 25 plus levels. So far, price charts have totally different story and it is ignoring all negative news. If any market ignores negative news then it must be named as bullish market. Indian market is showing all bullish characteristic in perhaps very wrong time. I find it just reverse of last year’s move when it was showing all bearish characteristic in bullish global scenario.

Nifty is likely to take gap up today as suggested by SGX Nifty this morning. If it opens near 6750 then nothing will be left to buy. I need to repeat word of caution. Market may react at higher levels. It may not able to ignore bigger dips global indices. Equally, 6640 is real good support which was saved on Monday’s trading and hence rebound came. Once again, two supports may work; one is 6675 and other at 6640 levels. I still suggest that what SGX Nifty is pointing is a view and position taken by traders at abroad. It is not a compulsion that Indian market will follow same trend. It looks like money has moved towards emerging market and Indian equity got good attention. One must prepare for earning season.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – SGX Nifty is indicating for opening near 6790 which is going to be a sound gap up after one day of holiday. Note that if really comes then it will be perhaps against the strongest odd of recent times. There cannot be strategy for this kind of day. It is better to ignore trading on index. Remember, VIX is also above 25. Fact so far is that we only have time correction so far, there is no price correction yet. It is all indicating for something bigger in coming days. Do not short either unless sell signal comes during trading hours.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 has tested 1840 support zone last night but closed with some bounce. This is going to be weak-bear bounce. It will end in the zone of 1860-1870 at the maximum side. A fresh wave of sell off can hit the street again which can bring S&P below 1840 levels. This time it is going to sustain below 1840. Then, we have chance to see market going lower towards 200 DMA or may be near to 1740 area. Bulls may say let it close below 1840. So, this is last chance. Do not break your head on reason.  

07 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Weak global cues may dominate but charts are not turning weak yet. It has two strong supports; one is at 6675 and next is at 6640 levels. It has resistance at 6775 only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 April 2014: -

On 04 April 2014, FII Bought INR 232.46 crs and DII Sold INR 1125.06 crs

On Friday, Indian rupee turned stronger by further half percent. On other hand US market got their brutal sell off. We heard that Sun Pharma is going to buy Ranbaxy in four billion dollar. So over all, we have many good news for Indian market but all news are bad for rest of the world. It happens very rare.

Let us back to technical chart formation. I have already suggested for two important technical supports for NIFTY. One is at 6675 which was already saved on Friday. Next and most crucial support will be at 6640. I hope that Nifty will break 6675 today and a move may begin for 6640. Now the reaction at 6640 will be decisive. If it breaks then we can conclude for some good technical dip and a short term topping in market. Remember, this rally has a length of nearly 845 points. So, even 300 points of dip from 6776.75, i.e. 6480 will be only a technical correction.

So, this was the reason not to buy at high even if market were going higher. How dangerous is this? Look at another moving average, i.e. 200 DMA. It is at 6060 levels. Nifty is still near its high point only. Some desperate correction is needed. This uptrend will remains intact with short term support at 6480-6420 levels.

How ridiculous is this that we have all-time high with VIX running above 22 and now even heading towards 23. I feel that nifty can face stiff resistance at 6775 + Levels. Even after all odd, NIFTY is still in the race for bulls only. Let us see if it can break 6675 and head towards 6640 or not.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – SGX Nifty is indicating for dead opening. I am also expecting same. Strong technical support for NIFTY April month future is at 6710-6700 levels. I still suggest that Indices are not a trade yet in Indian market. It is heavily overbought and it has not given up yet. Stock specific trades make meaning. If it have to trade then I will act on short only if it breaks 6700 levels. weak global sentiment may hurt Indian market anytime. Will it?

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 got a shocking dip after hitting 1899 levels. I have already quoted that 13 Tom Demark indicators were giving ‘sell’. Is the chart going concerning? I suggest giving a full test to bears. It has two important supports, one is at 1865 and final is at 1840. Once it breaks 1840 then I would be sure for a move towards 200 DMA. We will see lot of clarity this week. Note that we can be confident on weakness only is it goes below 1840 or 50 DMA. After all, it’s a question of strongest bull of the world. They will try their bet to save 1840. 

04 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has two strong supports; one is at 6675 and next is at 6640 levels. On higher side resistance will come at 6675 levels. Will we get follow up of yesterday’s profit taking?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 April 2014: -

On 03 April 2014, FII Bought INR 717.39 crs and DII Sold INR 716.57 crs

Finally we saw a small negative close on eleventh day. This is definitely not looking weak but definitely on stiff resistance. I had an anticipation that top may emerge near 6767-6775 levels and we saw high as 6776.75. I am still not claiming that it is top yet. We need to see two more days to see any good confirmation. One thing is very clear that buying at these levels may not be safe.

We saw some selling yesterday and if we get some follow up today then only we can try to conclude something on indices. If indices are moving like mid cap stocks then confirmation will also be like same. This is a dangerous situation. This kind of winning streak always has ugly end. Every long position must be protected with suitable stop loss and traders should avoid overnight position.

I have already mentioned yesterday that as long as it is above 6675 we can see rebound from lower levels. We saw same thing in past 45 minutes yesterday. So with today’s opening keep your eye on 6675 support levels.

How ridiculous is this that we have all-time high with VIX running above 22. For today’s trading we will again see support at 6675. If it breaks 6675 then we will get a real big litmus test at 6640 levels. I still feel that this trend will intact as long as it is staying above 6640.

We need to be clear that this rally is running from 5933 and so far it hit 844 points. Even if we see 250-300 points fall then also it will be named as ‘technical correction’ only. So it can eat portfolio in technical correction also. I feel that nifty can face stiff resistance at 6775 + Levels.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – After long time SGX Nifty is showing negative tick in morning hours. There is no great encouragement for trade on Nifty. As long as it is above 6700 it can see able to see bounce anytime. It will have stiff resistance at higher side. So, one may prefer to short rise only. I still suggest ignoring trading on indices as stocks has much better opportunity. We exploited shorting SBIN, TATAMOTORS and TATA STEEL yesterday. We may see weakness in banking stocks today. Keep index as reference point and trade short on weak stocks.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 is making a Tom Demark sell signal on daily chart - not saying it’s a top , but just something to keep in mind. It hit another new life-time high and then slipped but still not concerning. I still hope for the cross 1900 marks but I prefer to be cautious as Dow Jones has not crossed 16600 levels yet. We need to have bold confirmation for further rise to buy. This is surely a technical confirmation but not bold enough yet.  It is looking like to extend gain above 1900. I am not participating in trade yet.