You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 20
September 2013: -
On 19
September 2013, FII Bought INR 3543.84 crs and DII Sold INR 1829.72 crs
Look at
above buy figure by FII. This is called a typical FII buy near top. Do you
remember that when Nifty was near 5200 they were selling massively? I can only
say ‘best of luck’ to those FII.
Now, let
us talk about today’s monetary policy. I can say that Dr. Raghuram Rajan is
most lucky man on earth right now. He became RBI governor 15 days back and most
of his so called challenges are automatically solved. Indian rupee appreciated
by 10% or more and all of a sudden from nowhere fed chairman Ben Barnanke
changes his mood on tapering.
Now question
is will he deliver today what market wants and expects. I feel that this is
probably the best time to be brave and focus on ‘growth’ which was just second
priority in past many years. RBI governor has to give something for growth.
If 6100 on
Nifty came so fast then main reason is that market is strongly expecting that
current RBI governor will give something positive on this monetary policy. It is
only expectations and hopes which has changed in past 16 trading sessions. Rest
other factors remains same. I am not expecting repo rate cut. I am expecting
that he will remove those restrictions which former RBI governor put to give
strength to Indian rupee. He is supposed to remove restriction on CRR too.
Technically,
this rise has almost over done by 100-150 points what I had expected. My wave
analysis is suggesting that we are in final stage of fifth rising wave. We have
high possibility that RBI may give final top of the market. Government of India
of got garden of opportunity to control its fiscal deficit. I need to be clearer;
we have three months to do. Now, coming three months will decide the fate of
Indian economy.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – Nifty future is
likely open flat. All eyes are on RBI policy. I feel that market has discounted
most positive by RBI to come. I can able to quote only one level. If it breaks
6060 in the downside then only we can see some decisive pullback. If not then
also it will see pullback from higher levels. One need to note that we are
going to see derivative expiry next week.
S&P
500
– A pause at 1730 is generating challenging hourly pattern. It is too early to
say for final top but here we have possibility to address this as final top. I can
able to get confirmation if it closes below 1710 without giving 1730 in
reality. I am not overexcited with fed move.
I am not
comfortable to say that pullback will not come. It should come and it will
come. Only question is when and from which point.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
