You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 17
February 2014: -
On 14
February 2014, FII Sold INR 15.86 crs and DII Sold INR 45.00 crs
Nifty
rebounded exactly from 200 DMA which was at 5981. It has closed at resistance
point near 6050 with massive momentum. I can still say that 6105 will act as
stiff resistance although we may come close to this level. One can be bullish
for trading but cannot bullish for positional yet.
Have a
look, S&P 500 rebounded 100 points from their recent low (from 1737 to 1839).
In the same time Nifty just able to manage from 5933 to 6048. Well, we have
interim union budget today. Practically, it does not make sense if market wants
to react with it. If this happens then it will be only media and their hype
driven. So, it will be better not to watch and conclude for those. Stick with
global cues and chart pattern.
We may
perhaps see the momentum to continue in first hour of trade. If it opens above
6075 then it may challenge the levels of 6100-6105 also. Question is will it
try? Simply, why to break head? Wait for the break above 6105 to add fresh
long. We took long on Friday which we will book and then go for wait and watch
mode.
So far, this
is like buy at 6000 and sells at 6100. It is just odd 100 points only and very
hard to answer how many times it can repeat. I can simply give one hint that
our market may head for a real big surprising move but that’s looking little
far from now. For today, technical support will be at 6026 and 6000. On higher
side, it has only meaningful resistance at 6100-6105 if it opens above 6075.
One more
thing, SBIN result is not as bad as media people are saying. NPA is still a
concern but these are known facts. There were times when this stock was at 3000
and all media people were praising it. Actually, those were the times when
things were going wrong. What we are seeing now is just the consequences.
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Strategy
for Nifty February future – It has added lot
of long position due to some short covering activity on Friday. It was just one
hour of trades which has changed the things. Think for some more rise if it can
able to stay above 6085 levels for first 15 minutes of trade. I have already
added my long on Friday’s sessions near 6010 and I will try to exit near
resistance. Simple way is, from higher levels nothing is safer unless it go
above 6126. Any failure at top will again result the fall. Note that it is
just100 points band on Nifty to trade.
S&P
500
(USA) – When it was looking like
bulls were changing their mind, they took charge again. It is another quicker
100 points rally on S&P. Now it is just 11-12 points away from technical
resistance of 1850 and this is life time high too. In previous rising wave I had
quoted 1854 as technical resistance when it was near to 1850. I like to quote
1854 again for this time. If it crosses 1854 then it can raise the possibility
for 1888 levels. Logically, we can expect good trading support at 50 DMA only
which is at 1810. My view is – Do not add fresh long near 1850. Book your
profit on long deals and wait for the market reaction at 1850-1854. Think to
buy above 1854.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
