You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25
October 2013: -
On 24 October
2013, FII Bought INR 991.83 crs and DII Sold INR 735.40 crs
I am
repeating what I said yesterday. Here it is -
((( Technical
conditions has arises in a manner that first we need to focus on 6 2 4 0 . )))
Accepted that
6240 cannot be exact 6240, it can be 6230 or 6250. We saw 6252. Situation remains
same. We saw another brutal intraday sell off. It is confirming my view that we
should first focus on “decisive crossover of 6240-6250 levels”.
I have
already quoted that we may see a top either at 6240 or 6300 or even 6350 but it
cannot give you euphoric at one go. Indian traders were fashionably bearish at
bottom of 5118 and then at the bottom of 5700. Now people are fashionably
bullish at 6200 odd levels.
I am not
saying that we should not or we cannot hit new all-time high. What I like to
say is that one has to be extremely caution at these levels. This level has
history of trapping bulls. It has happened in 2008 also where 6200-6300 put the
last nail on bull’s cockpit. Very few were able to make come back to the
market. Now, this is what I like to focus. Mass behavior shows that traders may
be scared of past and may stop those levels. Take note that US market has
crossed those levels of fear on DJIA and S&P 500 but not on NASDAQ.
I can read
a clearer sell signal on Nikkei. I have already said for selling from Monday
onwards. I should use a term as ‘global
sell off coming’.
I have
also traded bullish from many months. I also want this market rising but I cannot
close my eye from reality. I have a strong feeling that we will overcome from
the scared past of 6300-6360 and will advance more. Can it happen now? I am not
very sure. I am not even sure about the reason of fall. You can observe the
formation on continuous negative divergence which is better vision on hourly
chart.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty October future – NIFTY future is
not showing the pain of fall on closing basis but for intraday it was scary. Technical
charts are still saying that if it starts trading below 6160-6150 levels then
we can expect a move towards 6100 levels. 6000 can be a surprise pack but not
impossible. On higher side 6240 to 6260 (now say 6270) will be tough resistance
to cross. Today is the last trading day of the week. Weekly opening was at
6220. It can be negative after three weeks of rise.
S&P
500
(USA) – It closed on 1752 which is
definitely not completely unexpected but I still believe that it is a sell and
giving door for exit from long. One can observe 4 days chart to comprise for a possible
triangle formation which is suggesting for a drop towards 1720 at least. Take a
note that all shorts must be protected with stop loss above 1760. Every real coin
has two faces. Cross above 1760 can push S&P towards 1780-1800. I am unable
to read about the reason of fall but I can read the fall. I am giving a
strongest possible warning – RSI and MACD divergence is giving sell after sell.
This divergence is running from 1690. Do not believe the momentum blindly.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
