25 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is up and it has every chance to remain up till budget.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

25 January 2017: -

On 24 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 93.95 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 533.49 Crs

Well, we have derivative expiry today. A trend simply suggests that now I cannot expect this market to go down on expiry day. I am poor in predicting expiry day and I always feel that expiry day usually moves without any clues. This whole month turns bad for me as market never goes down while I was anticipating a down month hence I am not active on index now.

A simple charting suggests that market should move higher to hit 8550 – 8600 as it has closed above 8470. Now, if market to go give top then that top will not be anticipated by many people. My basic theory for next top is that it will come when least number of people will expect about it. This kind of top is usually very hard to predict.

For today’s trading also I may not opt to trade index, it does not matter how high it moves. Will it move higher? So far, charts are saying that it can make a beginning of new up move to end up expiry. 8470 is a key threshold. Let us see how it closes for the day and expiry.  

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It is like to see opening around 8540 levels as indicated by SGX Nifty. What we can expect on expiry day. Nifty future can zoom to 8600+ levels in short covering rise. It does not make sense to expect fall on expiry day as many traders may have trapped with shorts and still waiting for exit. A forced covering can be a potential source of rise.

BANK NIFTY January future – It has closed above 19000 levels and it is not looking weak. Is it tired? I cannot use such words on expiry day. If it gets real strength then it can hit 19300 levels. Expectation is one thing but it is very hard to treat expiry day. In the lower side 18900 is going to be a key support.