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You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
You must be tired. I am also tired
as our market remains in the same range from last one and half month. Dow Jones
lost almost 800 points from its recent peak and closed on four month low. Even S&P
500 has seen a slip of almost 100 points from its recent high and lost 7%. We have not seen any impact and Nifty is just
down by 1.50% from its recent peak. This out performance has limited the
trading opportunity on nifty to a big extent. Most of the time it is not moving
beyond 20-30 points during trading hours.
So, if 300 points of dip failed to
impact Nifty then what can make this market fall?
I must say that I cannot see any big
reason for this kind of out performance. If this is happening the one has to be
very cautious. Most of the time, this kind of out performance finishes weak
hand of the market and it can trigger sharp movement on small triggers. This can
be in favour of bulls. I am not saying that market will shoot up immediately. We
are still in tough resistance zone.
Equally, if fall has to come then do
not expect that market will issue you any advance notice. Yesterday, derivative
data was a bit disturbing. One has to be very cautious and try to go on stock
specific mode for trade else chances are high that you may loose money.
S&P 500 – When it was at 1460, I
said that 1475 would remain yearly top. It was predicted for a fall. We got
almost 100 points of fall. (Unfortunately, Indian market has done nothing). Can
we expect more fall? Yes, S&P 500 may see more falls as it is already in
panic mode and 1400 will remains very tough resistance for short term.
Conclusion: - We closed at 5738 but
market is bound to see pullback as long as it is saving 5680 levels. Confident fall
will hit only below 5680. On higher side 5780 will be a stiff resistance to
deal. I need to add that if traded sustain below 5730 then biasing may favour
bears.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
