You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
Nifty closed on dot at mentioned
crucial levels of 5888. It has slipped again from higher levels and giving a hint
for this profit taking to go deeper. Technical charts are still suggesting that
we may try to go lower. I have already mentioned in my past studies that it may
test 5854 and then 5817 at the break below 5890. Condition has fulfilled but
movement is still dull.
FII has bought INR 952.75 crs and
DII sold INR 365.60 crs.
Look at another important event.
October months IIP data is more than 8%. Is it sufficient to say for rise? We
need to remember that it has lower base effect and October was a festival
month. I can still say that those data is a much better data (if there will not
be revision later). If IIP were good then we have another poor inflation data
where market got CPI just shy at 10%.
It is not fair to assume for rate
cut now in the month of December. I am still thinking to buy the dips but now I
will prefer to take fresh decision after seeing the magnitude of dip. Technical
indicators like MACD are looking troubling. It is giving a possible negative
divergence. I doubt if we can hit 6000 market very soon.
In another important event, I cannot
ignore political situations now. Our economy wants better and deserves
attention but politicians are busy for some discussions which might create
further dead lock in parliament. I am talking about ‘reservation in promotion’
bill. In my views, I am still not convinced that current government may fail to
march ahead with reforms.
Our market may not follow global strength.
Technical shapes are not very encouraging.
Conclusion Nifty: I need to adjust some levels but
views need to be same. I will consider 5930 < 5950 and 5967 as crucial
resistances. Every 20 points rise will face stiff resistance. I am assuming for
towards 5854 and then 5817 levels. It will be a better idea to keep selling on
rise. It is very logical to expect price correction after 400 points of rise. I
do not think that I need to change my views in 8-10 points.
S&P 500 – It has extended to hit almost
1435. It is a full 90 points of swing for S&P 500. I need to say that cross
over of 1424 is giving a mild buy but will create a top which will sold very
soon. It can happen anytime now. Take a note that we may re test 200 days
moving average which is at 1385. One can prefer to keep stop loss above 1445.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
