You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 19 February
2013: -
On 18 February
2013, FII bought INR 142.91 crs and DII sold INR 110.55 crs.
The way
things are moving in recovery it is itself creating enough doubt. Yesterday market
closed in green but it has traded with very thin volume and those were in very
limited ranges. Day’s high-low might as 32 points practically Nifty was moving
in just 10-15 points.
It is
equally true that daily RSI has given some kind of positive divergence but it
is not showing that it will give immediate impact. Still recovery is a part of
market movement. Hourly chart has given double inside bar which is not a very encouraging
pattern.
Market is
not trying to take a call before budget. It is still very clear that the phase
of extreme volatility will be back now. It may start trading with volatility
from today after a day of silence. There is a band of 5940 to 5878 which will
not give easy trades. Suppose, if Nifty trades below 5878 then it will give a
push towards 100 SMA which is now at 5832.
I will not
give edge for recovery as recovery is a tougher word for Indian market. This
market has a chance of slipping in oversold zone too. Remember that nothing has
extremely over sold. Look at US market those are rising from last more than one
month in extremely over bought zone. My view is that this market is still short
on rise.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – Nifty future has
very sluggish trades yesterday but there were some impressive developments. Recent
high was 5979 and low at 5858. It has almost retraced by 50% with yesterday’s
rise. It is true that cross above 5922 will give levels of 5940-5950 levels but
will it cross 5922? I will say wait-watch and short at high. In the downside if
it sustain even below 5890 for 5-10 minutes then you can expect slide towards
5858. Remember, this market can fall from any levels anytime.
S&P
500
– It is patience testing deal now. This is something which is happening perhaps
first time in multiple years. US indices were no such history. 20 EMA is now at
1503. I will again say that keep an eye on 1508 to bet for fall. Above 1500,
firstly it has broad the ranges for trading and now narrowing. I am still
puzzled. What will begin fall and how? Everything that goes higher has to come
under gravity. Let us see. Every night I am hoping for fall but my waiting is
turning longer.
