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For 05 May
2014: -
On 02 May
2014, FII Bought INR 386.95 crs and DII Sold INR 405.65 crs
How was
past week? It was all red governed by bears with few odd brutal intraday
bounce. Market is just in the range of 6700 to 6800 zone from past five weeks. What
was looking like a rally has turned to a consolidation?
I have
already mentioned 6650 as a most crucial support and we saw some attempts by
bulls in that range. Why to get support at 6650? Suppose, if it breaks 6650
then it is going to change a bull’s pattern which is called higher low. 16th
May is on next Friday when we will get outcome of general election 2014.
I am
strongly quoting that Indian market will be de-coupled from global cues for
this week and next week too. From past trading sessions, bears have played with
a dip on caution and profit taking. My view is that now bulls may play with
optimism. Remember, gap generally used to come with primary trend. If market
has to go higher post-election then a primary bullish trend has to establish before
that.
If a
primary bullish pattern establish then it will be first hint for positive
outcome of election. In past week itself, I have divided first half of May
series trend in to 7-7 trading sessions. So far, it goes as per map. We saw
first 7 trading sessions in profit booking mode. Surely, I need to watch for
2-3 more trading sessions. Then, we may see optimism in market.
For today’s
trading session, we may see some higher opening and a roller coaster ride. I will
prefer to buy dip. Technical support will be at 6660-6650 levels. On higher
side, rise will sustain if it manages to spend time above 6740-6750.
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Strategy
for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is
hinting for a higher start near 6750. I still prefer to buy dip as optimism may
hit before election result and try to generate a new primary bullish trend. I am
still advising caution at higher levels for intraday as caution and profit
taking will try to bring it lower. For today and tomorrow, the fight between
caution and optimism will continue.
S&P
500
(USA) – S&P hit a high at 1891
on Friday and slipped to close in red. This may be nervousness near resistance
zone. Now, here are some strong words. S&P 500 may hit a new all-time high
and few euphoric closes. I was expecting 1950 as a top. It does not matter if
it hit 1930 or 1950 this week. What is going to be next will be more important?
A brutal correction may come afterward. So far, I shall prefer to be bullish
for this week. I may be bearish from either next week or from my target range
of 1930-1950. Remember, we still may have upside of 40-50 odd points.
