You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 19
March 2013: -
On 18 March
2013, FII bought INR 506.00 crs and DII sold INR 459.89 crs.
Our market
has moved little lower yesterday on European woes. Now for today, our market
would prefer to watch up-coming monetary policy review. Note that market has
already discounted 25 bps repo rate cut which is likely to come today.
Market can
cheer only if something comes more than 25 bps repo rate cut. Some people believe
that RBI may give CRR cut too but I am not expecting any such moves. One can
expect limited trading move till 11 am.
I strongly
believe that in the lower side if it breaks 5790 then it will be critical. Wave
trend suggest for panic if it breaks 5790. Break below 5790 will open newer
kind of concerns in term of trading ranges. On higher ide it will face
resistance at 5870 and then at 5900. Final hurdle will remain at 5971. Take a
note that RSI is showing for weakness only.
Now, let
us talk about euro zone crisis where most market recovered major part of fall
by yesterday itself. I am strongly quoting that more bad news will come in 2-3 months’
time. Policy makers are using Cyprus as experiment lab. Worse part is that
stock markets across the globe are saluting the wrong tradition. I said this
last year also and I am repeating now also that policy makers are playing with
the fire. They need to understand that Stock Market is not ‘the economy’; it is
just the mirror of economy. I am strongly warning, stop taking non-sense moves
which can explode socio-economic equation.
Just think,
people at Cyprus are going to pay for whose fault?
Looking on
this kind of development I am sensing that equity price may not stable at
higher levels in short term. Condition in India is also not looking good as we
are slipping lower on global investment priority.
Should I add
friction between DMK and Congress? Well, those are just domestic political
drama. Do not give any importance.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – It is very easy to
say that market will decide its course after RBI policy announcement and you
should not trade before that. Charts should say things before event or must be
hinting something. I am neglecting the impact of RBI policy. Market may see slip in post policy hours
irrespective of announcement. It may see some good degree of volatility before
falling. Is it going to give something wrong? May be yes. Technical support
5805-5800 for March month future.
S&P
500
– It was first break on the chart yesterday. Before you say for recovery from low,
first look at CBEO volatility index. It has seen a shoot up of 20%. It is
giving you enough hints. I am sensing that a bigger fall is coming. Do not
worry about reasons as those will come on its own time. Take a note that now
the time has come to see the impact of all those negative divergence.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
