You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
Will the range break today? A bigger
question asked by many traders. No one can give you answer. As long as Nifty is
staying above 5290-5260, we cannot see easy moves. Events are suggesting for
big week.
I am revising above wave plotting a
little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and
hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must
be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.
Now, on higher side it is not easy
to cross above 5343 (I have mentioned this from past many days). Even if we
cross we will not see great advance. Take a strong caution – Do not make
efforts if market remains range bound.
Best technical indicator of NIFTY:
(You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011 , it started rising from 5 June
2012
only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.
First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343
(Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.
Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496
(Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)
Take another calculation, wave 1 =
4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1
or wave 3.
Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5
= 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as
tougher hurdle to cross.
Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70
to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)
76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3
= 5288, which was roughly the high point of Friday’s trade.
I like to add one more point. This
rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as
reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100
levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.
So you should look for 5343 as first
hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance
can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not
close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.
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Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
