You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 02 September 2014: -
On 01 September 2014, FII Bought INR 554.14 crs and DII Sold
INR 561.69 crs
We saw another whooping rise with a close above 8000 levels
on Nifty. It’s second gap up in past four trading sessions, which remains
unfilled. Momentum favours rise which is an established trend. Price correction
is missing in this established trend which has started from 7540. On long term
Elliott wave chart, this up trend has started from 4531 odd levels.
Based on Elliott wave we may expect more steam in the market
but this is heavily over bought in short term. A short term top needs to emerge
for correction. So far, correction has denied and there is no great technical
indication for that. I can still suggest that a dip is very likely due to
heavily over bought nature of market.
If one is not aware then I must remind that QE in USA will be
over next month. My worry is that most global market can see some shaky
reactions after that or just before that. If I am saying just before that then
time can start in just few days. Well, there is no need to give much importance
to news flow but keep this fact in mind.
So far, Nifty is above 8000 and as long as it is above
8000-7990, no one can stop it except market itself. I like to add a warning
sign from hourly chart. You can check yourself on given chart. It is again a
rising wedge after 50 points gap up. So it is keeping a scope to fill yesterday’s
gap up without being bearish. This suggests me for a word of correction today.
For today’s trading, market will ask itself – Will 8035 be a
final word? I say, please look for a follow up buying above 8000. Nifty above
8000 must possesses more than a figure. I am not saying that it is a technical level.
It is a level of optimism. I draw few conclusions for intraday traders and
split market in to two parts. As, it is a rising wedge so support for first
half is deeper, i.e. 8000-7990. If it correct in second half then support will
emerge only at 8015. I repeat do not buy rise. No harm in missing few long.
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Strategy for Nifty September
future – Nifty September
future may open in the zone of 8050. Market may have a sense that rush traders
have already overdone. Technical set up is already for a buy formation but this
cannot be from higher side. Set up formation can change anytime today with some
sign of reversal. If it breaks 8025 then dip is very likely. On higher side
8100 is a only decisive hurdle for intraday.
S&P 500 (USA) – Is it hint for top? Yes, whatever
has to come this week will be best figure for the rest of the year 2014. In my
view, maximum permissible top should not be more beyond 2020. Current formation
is more like November 2008, March 2009 as well as September October 2002. It is
a very known fact that US indices used to fall every time after end of QE. We
have some good confirmation that DAX has already topped out with its last leg
of pullback rally before fall. September is usually a bad month for equity. I
expect rise in gold price and fall in equity price.
One liner conclusion is – A major top will emerge this week
itself and then afterward we will not see that figure in September, October,
November and December2014. As of now, DAX is giving target of 8000. I say, do
not trade. Hold shorts with patience for little long time. Monday is holiday
for US market.
