30 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Two big days and now be cautious at higher levels. I am still expecting recovery to continue but not with same pace. Technical support is at 5340 levels. Cross above 5430 will be better confirmation for intraday.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 August 2013: -

On 29 August 2013, FII Sold INR 248.18 crs and DII Sold INR 75.80 crs

India VIX slipped from 36 and came at 29 in a matter of two trading sessions. We saw great improvement in India rupee with just one decision. Why that decision was not taken earlier when it was suggested from all side. It seems that RBI willingly allow rupee to float in flood. I always give importance of follow up on trend reversal. Let us see if rupee can give some more positive today although it is not very likely. I still feel that decision was too late and too little.

So far, recovery follow the roadmap exactly in the same way as suggested. We got derivative expiry above 5400 levels. For today, 5430 will act as threshold. Cross above 5430 should give anther rise towards 5500-5530 levels. I must say that trend traversal can be confirmed only above 5530 levels. So far, it is just pullback.

It is last trading day for the month and first trading day of new series. Typically, Indian market has some bad history for September month but I still feel some better performance for the coming month. It is notable that market slipped from past two months.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading with a gain of 30 points right now. I am expecting some premium – discount fluctuation on September future. Trading support can emerge only at 5350-5340 levels. We need to focus on crossover of 5430. Let us see first hour low which will be very important.

S&P 500 – I said that I have no trade on US indices. It is just moving on unpredictable 20 points ranges. Yesterday too, it crosses 1642 but failed to impress and slipped in last hour of trade. It may have Seria reasons or anything else but charts are still saying for wait and watch. Remember, September month does not have good history for stock price. So, support in the range of 1624 to 1618. On higher side need a strong cross above 1642-1647 to conclude anything. It is pausing structure.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect short covering on derivative expiry day. Nifty can reach as high as 5400 too. Welcoming RBI step as they corrected their “BIG MISTAKE”. Please do not commit this again.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 August 2013: -

On 28 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1120.43 crs and DII Bought INR 506.78 crs

First big news for this morning in my view is this – “RBI opens special window for forex purchase by oil companies.” The PSU oil companies are the biggest buyers of dollars, requiring USD 8-8.5 billion every month for the import of an average 7.5 million tonnes of crude oil. The RBI decision is aimed at curbing volatility in the forex market.

Take the impact – Rupee will open this morning with great strength, may be near 67 levels. This was much needed step and I quoted about this step earlier also as solution. Next question is who has thrown oil companies to open market for buying dollar? Well, it was our present RBI governor. This is what I called as ‘policy error’. Readers should conclude themselves. I can say that Indian rupee will at least not going to be volatile for intraday from today. I still need to see if RBI is too late for this step.

My condition and concern is 10 year Bond yield. Thankfully it saved 9 and gave me reasons on technical charts too to buy equity.

As quoted in the chart, you can see that length of wave ‘c’ elongated towards 5118 which was turning equal to wave ‘a’. Wave theory suggests that whenever this condition occurs then ‘a bounce’ deserve. One must focus on RSI too. We added long when NIFTY was at 5150. It was the moment when 99% traders were extremely pessimistic. It was the time when IndiaVIX was shooting 36. (I have a suggestion for NSE, please open VIX for trading).

We have derivative expiry today and I am expecting short covering. My expiry target is near 5400. Let us see. Nothing cost me from expecting as my buys are from extremely lower levels. Remember, I am bullish on metal stocks and pharma stocks only.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty August future – SGX Nifty is trading with a gain of 25 points right now. It is giving me a hint for higher start, may be above 5300. Technical charts are giving me a hint for support at 5260 to 5240 levels. Stabilizing rupee will force bears to cover short. If short covering comes on expiry day then I can expect 5400 too. Are you expecting 4800-4600-4500??? (all in a month?)

S&P 500 – So far, 1627 and a bounce. This is what I gave as a road map. Now fluctuating in the range of 1625 to 1640 will not give trades. I can short this only if it breaks 1618 in decisive way, leaving odd 8 points on table. On higher side also, I need to a cross above 1642 to think about long. So, I have no trade on US now. Let us wait and watch.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, we need to hope for some revival in the range of 5250 to 5200. Many stocks are giving valuations to but who will be first buyer and when? INR to hit 67.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 August 2013: -

On 27 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1373.99 crs and DII Bought INR 480.50 crs

US market and EU market slipped on the fear of possible US attack on Seria. This fear is dominating global sentiments right now. Indian market is already struggling from many other fears too. Even small selling can push Indian market lower. We saw Indian rupee at 66.30 levels after ‘food security bill’ get passed in parliament.  

So far, there is no hope for Indian rupee. It is getting weaker day by day and impact is adverse on long term bond yield. I can strongly quote that nation is paying for ‘policy error’ committed by policy makers. This policy error is the result of political ambitions and political mistakes. It must be frustrating Indian investors too. I strongly hope that this kind of brainless policy making will continue for longer time. We have election next year in May month. Only God knows what kind of damage can come till that time.

International market is showing that we should prepare our self for 67 on Indian Rupee against US dollar. True, now we do not “Bharat Nirman”, we need “Bharat Punarnirman”.

Technical charts are giving hope for 2-3 days and then washed out with one single gap down and fall. So far, Nifty is likely to test 5250 levels again and support can emerge at 5200 marks. I am strongly quoting that technical has lesser value in panic fall.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty August future – It is going to see another dip opening. For whole August month, we got only GAP opening. 30% were higher opening and 70% were lower opening. Let us see if it can react for some reversal from 5220-5200 levels. It is not easy to deal. Wait for first hour bottom to conclude. Higher weightage of banking stocks in NIFTY is giving more pain.

S&P 500 – I said yesterday that it is forming structure for weakness but I was not aware about this kind of reason for weakness. Technical charts are saying for some pause at 1624 to 1630 levels before fresh sell off.  It does not matter if US attack on Seria or not but I will prefer to book short at 1624-1620 levels. A break below 1620 will give 1600-1598 as short term bottom.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is expected to get support at 5400 to 5380 levels. It may recover from its intraday low but this recovery may come in second half only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 August 2013: -

On 26 August 2013, FII Sold INR 607.43 crs and DII Bought INR 409.99 crs

India is under an untold financial crisis. Our rupee is losing its value and there is a further scope of further depreciation. Firstly, government of India has not done anything for years and now they are doing all such things to add further damage. Welcome to ‘Food security bill’ and its political ambition. I am not against this kind of bill but I am against the timing of this kind of bill. I am not talking about political timing. Clearly, I feel that our economy is in the state where government should “cut out” its expenses rather than adding more subsidies.

Market is ready to react with it. You can just hope that damage should not be too big. I am expecting pressure on banking stocks again. Market is already discounting many big negative factors. I feel that this market has shown great relative strength while economic fundamentals are so poor. Believe me that even 5400 Nifty is also a big achievement.

Technical charts are not so hopeless. We are just two trading sessions away from derivative expiry. It will add further volatility. Only logical technical support is at 5400 levels. An initial dip is expected today and then it will follow recovery in second half of trading. When I am saying recovery then I do not mean for banking stocks. Keep your eye on Indian rupee and NSEL issue too.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Firstly, it will be 50 points negative start. Then one can expect trading support to emerge at 5400 to 5380 levels. It is not easy to decide about further move because it will depends on many event which will occur during trading session only. It may give a shock to traders before expiry.

S&P 500 – It has a likely target at 1670 levels which it has almost tested yesterday. We saw a pin point fall from 1670. It makes the range wider. Expected range for trading can be from 1640 to 1670. I still feel that S&P 500 has formed a pattern which can result significant weakness in US market. Yesterday’s higher opening was looking as perfect place to initiate shorts. Remember, even DAX has resistance at 8450 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty should extend towards 5500-5505 levels. It may extend towards 5600 if manages to sustain above critical resistances. Metal, Pharma, technology and auto stocks will perform this week too.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 August 2013: -

On 23 August 2013, FII Sold INR 148.57 crs and DII Bought INR 755.87 crs

We got a strong follow up of recovery. Nifty hit a low at 5254 and then recovering. So far, it is almost 200 pointes of recovery from lower levels. Technical recovery is expected to continue. I was optimistic for recovery as metal stocks were showing strength in the last leg of fall. If you observe then you can see that metal stocks are giving great recovery.

We can expect more strength in metal and auto stocks this week of trades too. I am still not feeling to be very optimistic from banking stocks. At the best also, banking stocks will be laggard of any further recovery on index.

Technical charts are optimistic but cautious for today also. I am expecting a test of 5500 levels. Challenges will come after that. Suppose if it manage to stand above 5500-5505 for 10-15 minutes then we can expect this rise to continue for 5550 to 5600. One most note that we have derivative expiry this week.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading flat with a gain of 12 points right now. Asian market is also looking stable. All eyes should be on 5516 which is still little too far. As of now there should be an attempt towards 5516. Further move will depend on ‘make or break’. A supportive global cues will be more helpful but those may not same as of morning minutes.

S&P 500 – It exactly came at 1660 and looking to break higher. Rise will have no great room from here. It is just a pullback. Break above 1660 will a move towards 1675-1680 ranges. It seems that early this week will belong to bulls but later may be dominated by bears. As of now charts are saying for a move towards 1680 and a failure of higher break will result fall.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We have optimistic Friday but it is on Litmus test right now. It needs follow up buying to sustain. Support is at 5350 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 August 2013: -

On 22 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1277.64 crs and DII Bought INR 389.66 crs

Above figures are showing that so far people were just in rush to cover their shorts. 5250 was saved by 4 odd points. We saw tremendous volatility in recent few days and biasing was clearly in favour of bears. Nifty took a technical come back at the time when it was looking too hopeless but it was definitely expected.

I still cannot rule out for volatility. Question is – is it really so bad in market that I should expect 4500 NIFTY? I have few answers for you.

1. In dollar term, Nifty is already at 4500. It is giving me sense that dip will be bought by sensible bulls.
2. INDIAVIX already hit euphoric high near 30. As long as it is below 30, you can expect sidewise moves. It is equally true to note that cross above 30 will give shoot up towards 36-40 levels.
3. Have a look on metal stocks. Tata Steel gained over 40% from its recent lows. History suggests that if recovery comes with metal stocks then it always try to sustain.
4. Stock market always runs ahead of fundamental. If we are at worse or near to worse then it might be time to buy stocks to take some impulsive gains.
5. I cannot say that policy makers will improve by overnight. In fact I am also hopeless as many others. This is my fear but this reality too. I am not expecting any great government actions till election. To be honest, I feel that fundamental situation may deteriorate further till election. This may put Indian market on side wise mode.

Indian rupee should not be cause of concern from the levels of 65. My concern is 10 year bond yield which should not rise. Take a note that Stock market has not reacted with weaker rupee; it was a cascading effect of some actions. Stock market slipped in reality with parallel to rising 10 year bond yield.

Government of India still has time to learn its lessons. Adverse or absence of policy making will put us in dip trouble. I can buy and sell stocks depending on time. First alarm came for this situation in the year 2010 itself. I have already forecasted for rising NPA of bank, GDP @ 5% and weaker rupee in the year 2010 itself.

Now, let us see today’s outlook. Today is going to be most challenging day. I always say that to sustain a recovery most important component is “follow up” buying. It has support in the range of 5350 levels. Litmus test will emerge at 5500 levels only. Technical charts are optimistic but cautious for today.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading flat right now in opening hours of Asian market. I am expecting a flat to positive opening for the day. Then, technical support will be at 5360-5340 levels. On higher side it may try to give a rise towards 5500 sooner. I can still add that volatility will be the part of life for few more days. Such volatility might be opportunity to make money or lose money. Pick right direction.

S&P 500 – How technical charts works? US market future kept on running in red throughout the day but just before opening it turns positive and saved 1640 levels. Now, it is forming a ranging pattern between 1660 to 1640. Break of any side will give favourable direction. I consider for the possibility of rise towards 1670-1675 levels. No matter if QE is there or taper.       

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Post fed minutes, INR likely to open well beyond 65. Nifty is likely to open in the range of 5250-5200 levels. Better to be in wait and watch mode.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 August 2013: -

On 21 August 2013, FII Sold INR 792.11 crs and DII Bought INR 775.45 crs

Nifty almost got 250 points of fall yesterday from its top. This kind of formation is really very troubling as it might be a sign of ‘no immediate recovery’. Even last 500 points of fall came without even single positive close. I was assuming yesterday that we will see some 1-2-3 days of recovery but I was definitely shocked with the fall.

It is looking like even fed minutes will also come and go kind of event without any impression. It is butchered sentiment which is doing big damage to stock price in India. Indian financial market is paying its price for its hopeless and paralyzed policy makers and now it is not a new sentence.

With today’s morning, be ready to see Indian rupee hitting 65.00-65.30 against US dollar. This might be looking overdone but there are no signs of pause. Bond yield and forex markets are moving like mid cap stocks.

US fed minutes were looking as non-event but it is giving a sense that tapering is a done deal. Although, fed is not saying when will they do that. It is fair to say that Barnanke bubble is busting in emerging economies. How tough will this be to handle? We are already experiencing in forex as well as stock market.  

Technical charts are still down and not giving any hopes. In fact, whenever it gave hope during intraday session, it got sold at higher. It is likely to test 5250-5200 marks today but those will be another gap down.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a loss of 80 points. It is giving opening in the range of 5250-5200 levels. In panic technical supports has no great relevance. If recovery has to come then it has to be decided by best market analyst. I always believe that market itself is best market analyst.

S&P 500 – Break below 1640 will be a cause of concern. It can be taken as a sign that recovery has denied. This is first time that US market has denied the opportunity of recovery. If trades sustain below 1640 then next logical target will emerge only at 1616 to 1600 levels. It is looking like selling is about to continue. Slowly, whole world is moving in India way.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A big bounce is on the card after RBI fresh and correct moves. Nifty can be on the test of 5500 levels today. Bank Nifty to dominate. “White Wednesday”.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 August 2013: -

On 20 August 2013, FII Sold INR 1424.32 crs and DII Bought INR 1066.15 crs

I was unable to under RBI’s moves in recent past weeks. I was worried about bond yield, not depreciating rupee. Instead of squeezing money (monetary tightening) from the system, the central bank announced to conduct an open market operation (OMO) to purchase (not sell) government bonds of Rs 8,000 crore from the market on August 23, 2013.  

I say, “der aaye, durust aaye”. RBI is already late for this step but still it can be tonic for banking stocks. Market is likely to take gap up. I have a strong warning; do not short this market at higher levels too. Nifty is not likely to cool off.

I took long day before yesterday and hold my nerve yesterday. We took long on telecom and steel stocks but not yet traded banks. I am sure that most banks will open higher by 5-7% today. I will still prefer to buy only. Take a note that banking stocks can gain as high as 15% too.

Once again, after mammoth gap up technical will have less value. Still charts are suggesting for move towards 5500. I am even more bullish, I am expecting 5600 too in recovery.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a gain of 80 points. I am expecting even bigger opening. I will not surprise if Nifty August future open at 5480. Cross over of 5480 will give us 5550-5600 levels. There is nothing more to analyze. It is going to be clear cut buy but you have a edge if you would have taken long yesterday or before.   

S&P 500 – It recovered as road map suggested by me. It has saved 1640 levels and closed above 1650. I hope for a move towards 1670-1675. One should expect good trading support in the range of 1645 to 1640 levels. Suppose, if it sustain above 1675 in recovery then it may again shock bears. This is something which is beyond limit of technical right now. Let us see the rise first.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: More damaging signals are coming for Indian rupee. Pray for NIFTY to hold 5360, if breaks then further round of sell off will begin.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 August 2013: -

On 19 August 2013, FII Sold INR 680.08 crs and DII Bought INR 372.65 crs

India VIX hit a high at 26.99. It is itself reflecting the panic which is growing over Indian market in recent days. It is a sort of ‘Indian financial crisis’. In spite of all efforts by RBI and Government of India, Indian rupee hit 63.25 yesterday against US dollar. It is unfortunate time as NSEL payment crisis also hit at the same time. Payment settlement to begin from today and market will look for its development.

In my view, RBI is rigid on wrong ways and nation is paying price for the same. They must instruct oil producers to buy dollar from any fixed banks rather than buying in open market. This will take out at least ‘intraday volatility’. If you are not aware then I must inform that previously oil producers were not buying dollar from open market. Do something to bring dollar rather than squeezing rupee form market.  

From last week of July, I was getting a hint based on charts and overseas positions that Rupee can hit 65. Now, those fears are turning to reality. All such targets are coming so faster that it is not giving time to adjust. Massive hit came even on 10 year bond yield which shoot up above 9 now.

After such massive developments, technical charts are losing value. Fair charts are suggesting that break below 5360 will give us 5250-5200 levels too. Indian rupee may hit 63.60 to 64.00 by today itself in opening trades. You can expect stability in the zone of 65.00-65.30. I will not surprise if it open at 64 itself. There are some traders who believe for 70 by Diwali. Only god can save now.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a fall of 40 points, right now at 5370. It is giving easy fall now days. Indian rupee has seen massive weakness in US market last night. This has pushed SGX Nifty lower. Charts says that break below 5360 will give us 5250-5200 levels. Technical has to go wrong for any revival or reversal.  

S&P 500 – It came very close to 1640 levels. So far, S&P 500 has corrected by 65 points from its recent top. Now market is eyeing on fed decision over tapering. Now, I am expecting a trading rebound either from 1640 or nearer. Charts are still saying for weakness. If it breaks 1640 without any rebound then we can expect further dip towards 1624. I feel that a rebound is coming from 1640 for a move towards 1665-1670.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not expect ‘White Monday’ immediately after ‘Black Friday’. Immediate support for Nifty is at 5460-5430. Will rupee give further weakness? May be yes.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 August 2013: -

On 16 August 2013, FII Sold INR 563.23 crs and DII Bought INR 732.23 crs

India VIX came at 23.64 levels. It has gained over 26% by Friday only. This is showing the panic which has gripped market now a day. It is useless to figure out for reasons. We have too many reasons. You may accept or reject like our finance minister and prime minister has done. I accept that situation is not as bad as 1991 but it might be just better only. I am still repeating that government and RBI should focus growth and only growth to avoid further turmoil in economy. Do not try to solve a problem which is beyond the scope of any solution. They tried to solve inflation from 2009. Has they solve? I am happy that Prime minister said to focus growth.

I have last year also for Indian rupee for a target of 60-62. Now when 62 become reality then technical set up is turning worse. Overseas traders are already betting on 65 from past 2 months.

We saw a black Friday. This kind of fall is a characteristic after ‘death crossover’. My charts are suggesting that support can emerge at 5460 to 5420 levels. I am still saying, technical can give you supports but it cannot say which support will get respect. Market is expected to open on nervous note. I have a simple rule that I do not try to find trades in panic mode of this kind. It is always better to take real time cues. I am expecting recovery from 5460 but so far it is a hope.    

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with a fall of 20 points, right now at 5480. I cannot give any importance to SGX now. Market is likely to get support near 5460-5430 levels. I am quoting wider range of support. It will be better for traders to avoid first 60 minutes of trading. Wait, watch and then deal.

S&P 500 – It is still heading towards 1640 which may act as ‘make or break’ kind of condition. I can say that this market needs a strong positive divergence before rising. Such conditions are still far away from formation. Meantime, we can expect this slide to continue. Technical support is at 1640. If it breaks then one can expect 1616 to 1600 marks too.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap down will come to start near 5700 levels. I am expecting support at 5680 to 5649 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 August 2013: -

On 14 August 2013, FII Bought INR 247.96 crs and DII Bought INR 249.28 crs

US market finally reacted with its technical negative divergence and slipped. Well, there is no such formation in Indian market yet as we have already seen sharp fall. We saw a shooting figure in WPI inflation which came at 5.79%. It was shocking but not unexpected. Just think what RBI and government of India handled so far. Inflation or Rupee or CAD? They failed on all front. If Nifty is at 5700 even after such massive failure then we should give credit goes to market man. I can still say that this is the phase of hopeless phase of economic fundamentals.

Technical charting and Elliott wave set up is completely different. Refer to the chart. Most important band has range from 5649 to 5809. I am expecting oscillation in this range only. A bounce form 5486 should be named as ‘recovery’ only as long as it is below 5800-5820 levels. ‘Death crossover’ will have its own significance.  

A gap down is likely after fear of partial rollback of QE in USA. US market slipped by 3% in past two trading sessions. Even after gap down, we will get technical support at 5680 first and then at 5649 levels. I will expect intraday rebound again from lower opening.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading will fall of almost 40 points. Now it is at 5707 levels. Expect technical support at 5680-5670 levels immediately. There is no great deal for shorting after opening. It may have potential to surprise you with a bounce. When global market were rising, Nifty were on fall. Now when global market is on fall, Nifty is giving relative strength.

S&P 500 – It was a brutal break of support and then a fall. Fear of partial rollback of QE is back again. Now, 1680 will act as resistance. It seems that this pullback will convert into weakness and it may have longer life than expected. As of now, S&P 500 will get support 1640 now but I cannot deny possibility of further break. I am expecting a green day to misguide trend.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Charts are still advocating for further extension of recovery as long as Nifty holds 5640-5630 levels. Keep an eye on WPI data, expecting 5.10%,

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 August 2013: -

On 13 August 2013, FII Bought INR 227.08 crs and DII Bought INR 115.29 crs

We got 2.80% rebound on Bank Nifty which was really very rare kind of bounce. After market hours, Tata Steel has given positive shock with its quarterly numbers. I hold half of my long. There are less bad for today’s trading but NSEL fresh development can hurt sentiment again.

On other hand, market will get July WPI number today which will come during market hours only. It is expected to come at 5.10% due to higher food inflation. One should expect some reaction in those hours.

Technical charts suggesting for support at 5640 levels now. As long as it is maintains 5640 levels we can expect some more extension in rise. I have earlier discussed about death crossover and that market was at 5820. I am considering that this recovery will die before 5820 levels. Let us see today’s trading.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading will fall of 20 points which is acceptable after almost 200 points of recovery on Nifty. It is likely to open near 5690. So far, charts are saying for buy in dip assuming for trading support at 5650-5640 levels. On higher side we can expect 5750+ levels. Litmus test will emerge only at 5800+ levels. Expect heavy premium fluctuation today.

S&P 500 – As long as it is saving 1680-1675 range, it is likely to give rebound. It has just saved 1680 yesterday and moved towards 1696+ levels. We are getting negative divergence on many momentum indicators but US market has history of violating those. Technically it is looking for a dead day to positive day with a challenge at 1700 and 1710.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty may take a pause today but it is now still not giving sign of stability. Expect trading support to emerge at 5580 levels. Any further break will again push on panic mode.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 August 2013: -

On 12 August 2013, FII Bought INR 408.36 crs and DII Bought INR 258.81 crs

We got a bad result by SBIN. IIP contracted by 2.20% in the month of July. CPI came at 9.64%. This is showing the bleeding fundamental of Indian economy. I am not expecting sooner improvement. It is showing that one should expect more painful growth data.  

What can be worse than this quarter’s number by Indian corporate? Time has come that RBI should give up its concern over Indian rupee which is still weaker and almost near its all-time low. Now, there is no possible short term solution. Any steps to curb rupee weakness will just hurt growth while rupee will be unstoppable. It is just like the inflation shoot up from 2008 onwards. I am expecting a 1 USD = INR 62 today.

Technical charts suggesting for support at 5580-5584 now. I believe for a move towards support for initial hours. If it revives near support then bounce will come again. It is likely to hit levels of 5680 to 5716 in coming days but we need better confirmation pattern to emerge.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading with gain of 5 points only. I have already covered my long yesterday which I took at lower levels in past week. I still believe for a better pullback but economy data is not supportive. I may opt to buy lower levels again but I am not able to see a broader opening of higher levels. It is looking like to break lower if it sustain below 5588 levels.

S&P 500 – It has negative divergence on many crucial technical indicators and rise from this point should be limited. It is very likely to consolidate before any bigger correction to begin. The way it has rebounded from low, it is giving me a hint that there is a possibility of green day today. We can expect 1699+ levels. Let us see.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 August 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty gave a positive close on 13th day but not yet crossed 5580-5584 resistance marks. It is still not showing for recovery. All eyes will be on SBIN,ONGC and DLF result today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 August 2013: -

On 08 August 2013, FII Sold INR 395.78 crs and DII Bought INR 516.15 crs

In the last trading session we saw a pause in the fall. There is no great sign of revival yet in the market. It is interesting to see how market is going to react now as global market will undergo correction now. We saw some 30% rise in Ranbaxy the last trading session which was only sign which was suggesting that money is waiting for correct optimistic valuation for the market.

Now, traders and investors would like to see SBIN result. This is already down by more than 400 rupees in past three months of trade. I have no great hope from banking stocks in India as per fundamental development. Market need to take a call which should be one step ahead like Ranbaxy or it needs to go in technical way.

Technical charts are still advising caution for anything long. I was expecting reversal on 13^th day but it has to move above 5580-5584 levels which have not yet crossed so far. For today’s trading session, Nifty will have support in the 5500-5490. If it breaks this support range then it can drift towards 5460-5450 levels too. Let us see what is coming now. It is going to be big day as IIP and CPI data will also be on trader’s radar but those will come after market hours.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX AUGUST NIFTY is trading down by 30 points now. It is showing that it can open in the range of 5560-5570. I will wait for result and data to come. It should not go beyond 5530. It may see more fluctuations on weaker side for the first half. Decisive moves will come only in the second half. I like to see SBIN result to trade for next move but that will also come in second half.

S&P 500 – It gave another perfect intraday rebound on Friday night to provide opportunity to short this index. High was above 1699. It was like almost selling the high point in recent rally. This is only the first time after hitting 1560 that I gave a sell signal. It was based on MACD negative divergence on daily chart. I can still say that target is looking at 1680-1675. Further downside is possible only on the lower break of this support.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar