You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 21
June 2013: -
On 20 June
2013, FII sold INR 2094.06 crs and DII bought INR 1332.50 crs.
FII has
sold massively again in Indian market. They sold 6351 crs so far in June month
series. It was not only QE which has changed sentiment but also weaker Indian
Rupee that has played important role. Nifty is 600 points away from its recent
52 week high. Only small selling by FII pulled Indian market so much. Just think
that if they really sell.
When
market was rising it was never looking to move lower. Now, when it is going
down then it is not looking to recover. Fear can do this kind of damage. US
market slipped further 2.30%. It is overdone but there is no solution for this
kind of fall. US market is still down by only 6% from its all-time high. It is
looking heavily overdone and over sold for two days kind of time frame.
My prime
concern is still Indian rupee. Every 10% depreciation of Indian rupee cost
0.80% on WPI and 0.60% (of GDP) on CAD. Without RBI intervention it is just not
possible to see any pause in ongoing impact on equity, commodity, forex or bond
market. This logic is just not acceptable that it is happening all across the
world. Truth is that nothing is comparable like Indian Rupee. On 01 May 2013,
Rupee was at 53.66 and now on 20 June it was at almost 60. Imagine the damage. Many mid cap and small cap
stocks will see the impact on its quarterly numbers. So things are clear enough
that do not invest money in mid cap or small cap stocks in dip. Be in index
stocks only.
Technical charts are now giving support at 5620 – 5600 levels. Further
break will give 5550 levels too. This market has entered in a phase where
nothing is impossible for bears. The way Asia is trading now, it is all set to
open 1% lower again. Now, only god can help equity price.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is again
trading with a loss of 60 points and hinting opening near 5580. It has slipped
beyond my imagination. The way it is trading at 5580 is showing the panic. We
are almost down by 300 points in a matter of few minutes. Take 11% down levels
from 6230, it is coming at 5544. Below 5630-5620, only meaningful support is at
5544. Expect a strong rebound if RBI comes forward to help rupee.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
I thought
that I should see 1600-1598 but it has overdone and hit even 1585. Now one can
expect rebound as relief rally. It is true that US market got follow up of
selling and so this market is turning short on rise. Shorting should be done
after a rise only. Now, I do not know the magnitude of bounce. Immediate support
is at 1580-1575 levels.
Technical charts
are crying for a bounce but it is still hard to say is it coming or not. Buy
only a positive market.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
