08 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Break below 5940 it giving a hint for 5900 to 5880 levels. Weak global cues will give more pain. No reaction @ 5% GDP? (WHY?)

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 February 2013: -

On 07 February 2013, FII bought INR 827.14 crs and DII sold INR 989.73 crs.

It is useless to even look at money flow now to conclude anything. It is taken for granted that FII would be on buy side and DII would be on sell side. Do tell me that if FIIs are buying so market should rise. I can give things in the way like even though FIIs are buying, this market is not holding at highs. If you have any doubts then have a look at FIIs favorite HUL and TATAMOTORS.

Now nifty has broken 5940 support band. It is not enough yet, it has broken even 50 DMA (simple - Days moving average). I am shorting this market from higher levels and took some fresh short on this kind of closing. There is no point to talk about recovery without further fall. Remember, latest break below 6000 has never given even single recovery above 6000. All these have happened when global cues were stronger enough.

Let us talk about some data point also. CSO has forecasted India’s GDP @ 5.00%. Just one 29^th January RBI has forecasted for 5.50 % GDP. Good, in fact very good, this can happen in India only. I just like to say that CSO is known to give you the higher end of forecasting. So, prepare yourself to see GDP below 5% as a shocker. So, people were buying 6000-6100 Nifty at 5% GDP. This is sufficient reason for sell off but unfortunate Indian market is known to react very late. Do you know that fat that if CSO is right then this is the slowest pace of past 10 years? Just think!!!

Remember, break of one support will the beginning for the move towards next support. Now it is break 5940 and making an opening for 5823 marks. Further break will result a fresh wave of fall.

I have already said that not to worry about reasons of fall. I hope now you are getting so many reasons.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It has broken 5960 - 5950 and this is fair enough to assume that we have traded below 5960 for long time. Technically it needs to see a fall towards 5910 levels. If it breaks 5910-5900 then it will directly rest at 5850 levels. I was short from 6100 which I booked at 5975. Now, I took some aggressive shorting on the anticipation of fall. Global selling will help me to make money. Take a note that Nifty February future has not crossed 5995 marks yesterday. This level was mentioned yesterday.  

S&P 500 – Finally something is falling in USA. Right now it is trading near 1500 marks. I want break below 1495 to confirm for a remarkable dip. It is more than enough. All US indices are trading in extremely over bought zone. I will not break my head to find reasons. If you are trader then try to find out what is happening, do not waste your time to conclude why this happening is.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

07 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am again suggesting watching for the support at 5940. Any break below 5940 will drive towards 5900 levels. Watch out for latest GDP data too.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 February 2013: -

On 06 February 2013, FII bought INR 1137.96 crs and DII sold INR 1224.07 crs.

Nifty was moving in the range of 20-25 points only but look the participation by FII and DII. Easy money flow is still flowing in the Indian stock market. If you are happy with this money flow then just think for once why market is not moving north ward even after such massive money flow.   

Indian market is constantly underperforming the global market. Momentum is shifting towards down side. We have seen constant pressure with each 20-30 points of recovery which has happened trice in past two days.

I have already quoted for the support at 5940 levels when we were at the beginning point of fall. It is now resting near those given support. If it breaks 5940 then we can bet for further 40-50 points of further selling in Indian market.

It is still important to note that our market is falling even though global cues were stronger to stable. Last night, European market slipped to its 2 month’s low. Sooner or later selling will start in every single market across the globe. Firstly, it was India then Europe. USA and Japanese market is still waiting for its turn.

Remember, break of one support will the beginning for the move towards next support.

Based on pure technical, I have quoted for a rebound towards 6000 marks as it was saving 5940. We hit a high near 5990 then slipped again. It is almost indicating for the break of 5940. I cannot speculate but chances are very bright.

What is the reason for such fall? It is still unknown. Do not worry a lot about reasons when it will come it will come in massive ways.

Strategy for Nifty February future – It has lowest trade at 5964. Now, suppose if it sustain below 5960 (which should be a parallel support at 5940) for 5-10 minutes then it can begin fresh slide. Technical charts are suggesting that it should break lower with stiff resistance at 5995 levels. Market is likely to focus towards latest GDP data. Break below 5960 will give us levels near 5910. Sooner or later, this fall will come. Take a note that NIFTY future can see move massive downside on negative news flow.  

S&P 500 – We cannot have any great explanation for why US market is refusing correction. It should now begin with itself. It is heavy over bought and moving at stiff resistance zone (1500-1520).My first threshold point is too far at 1490. Based on accumulation pattern, I am raising threshold to 1498 now. I still have one question, “Will this market ever correct”? I am sure for just one thing that US traders are doing a bigger mistake by buying at this level.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar