NIFTY weekly analysis for 17 November’14 to 21 November’14

Elliott wave theory: It was only and only wave theory which has given the resistance of 8416 which has worked so well. Based on that, I can say that if it breaks 8290 then we can a possible dip towards 8100-8000 levels. Equally, overshoot above 8416 is also possible as long as it is staying above 8290 levels   

Market cycle: Global market may be on the last phase of rise. In general, global market used to take a dip in post QE effect. S&P used to take a dip at least after a month. I still believe that correction is close.

Technical indicators: Now, it is the time to count for weekly divergence again. A top is sooner as RSI has not moved with any greater strength.  

Charting pattern: I still believe that zone of 8350 to 8416 will a zone of short. Charting patterns are indicating for sluggish move before correcting. This upcoming correction can bring down Nifty in the zone of 8100 to 8000 levels. 

17 November 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – BALRAMCHIN, RANBAXY and SBIN

BALRAMCIN (64.30)
Buy above 65/SL 64.50/ Target 68|| Sell below 63/ SL 63.50/ Target 62-61

RANBAXY (653.45)
Buy above 661/SL 656/Target 670||Sell below 652/ SL 656/ Target 645-640

SBIN (2787.85)
Buy above 2820/ SL 2810/ Target 2850||Sell below 2780/ SL 2795/ Target 2740-2700

17 November 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8416 is still a resistance but we can say it as a top unless we see a close below 8290 levels. If not then it can overshoot above 8416 also!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 November 2014: -

On 14 November 2014, FII Bought INR 645.90 crs and DII Sold INR 517.51 crs

You take wave chart or you take technical chart, one thing is clear that we have spent eight trading sessions here and there at 8350. It is almost half a month. We predicated for a top at 8416 and we got that. Still I am unable to see clear sign of any significant correction. I must say that clear sign of correction will come only and only below 8290 which looks too far for now.

US market or European market, both are higher but near to resistance and those are giving some sign of correction. I must say that those are also not correcting to any good extent. It looks like ‘denying correction’ is global phenomenon. This generally happens on some strong money flow or some reason of money flow.

Based on Elliott wave theory we have resistance at 8416 on Nifty which is only a meaningful technical resistance to talk about. It does not matter if top comes at 8416 or over shoot above 8416. Short term chart is heavily over bought in the absence of any price correction.

For today’s trading session, we may see opening on flat note and then meaningful stiff resistance at 8416. Take a note that I cannot say that 8416 is top for now. Let us see how week begin. This is crucial week. I still hope for pullback from higher levels and strongly suggesting to avoid long on index at least.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – It will take another opening on positive side. It will face resistance at 8450 only. In the down side it will get support at 8350 and 8320 levels only. I do not think that higher levels can sustain without any price correction but I will take 8450 as stop loss for short on the hope of correction. Correction has denied so far.

S&P 500 (USA) – Practically it is trading in a straight line. I still believe for stiff resistance at 2045 levels. One correction needs to come. We may see levels of 1990-1980 before any fresh up move near to Christmas. We saw five close in a row near to 2040 levels itself. This is making trading dull at all-time high. So far, I advocate for holding short but stop loss must be small and just above 2045 levels ot above 2046 levels.