You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 18
April 2013: -
On 17 April
2013, FII bought INR 206.68 crs and DII sold INR 260.93 crs.
I have
already quoted as 5710 < 5730 as resistance. It hit a high at 5732 and then
slipped. IMF has reduced global growth forecasts. We have seen bigger fall in
European and American market last night. European markets were already down
much when we closed. You can say that Indian market has sustained better
yesterday comparing to Europe.
It seems
that Indian market were relatively better choice on buy side. One must note
that when Nifty was flat then also bank nifty was higher by 0.90%. So, it was
over all banks who have dominated the uptrend without any weakness. It is the
rate cut hope which has given recent boost. We have RBI monetary policy review
on 03rd May 2013, still a long way to go if global market remains
scary.
Yesterday,
VIX was higher by 0.70% when market closed dead flat. VIX is showing that rise
must be very limited above 5700. We got exactly the expected outcome. We have
some critical moving average falling to some important levels. 200 DMA is at
5659 and 20 EMA is at 5650 levels.
I am
expecting soft opening then we must look for how market is going to react at
5650. If it breaks and sustain below 5650 then it will again open newer and
lower zone for trades.
Specially note
that CCEA meeting will be conducted today evening where market may expect some
policy related decision. I can never bet on Indian policy makers. If it comes
then good else same story will be repeated. There may be some decisions on land
acquisition bill and some decision on relief package for exports.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – It does not matter
how it open. Important will be if it can break 5660. Further fall towards 5600
is expected on the break of 5660. Suppose, if it is not breaking 5660 then it
will just turn choppy. Take a note that market will on long weekend now so some
caution movement is expected in the second half and it will be in favour of European
market trend. I will still say resistance at 5730 + levels and fall should
come. Hope on CCEA may try to save some extent.
S&P
500
– I was expecting a washed out of Tuesday’s recovery. We got that and S&P
500 got exact support @ 50 DMA. It hit a low at 1543 which was nearer to 50
DMA. This is fine. Now, I will look for support at 1543 and break of 50 DMA will
be next requirement for fall towards 1500. I am expecting this to happen
tonight. Ben Barnanke is saying that economy is recovery but IMF has different words.
Time has come to know the reality.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
