You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 02
September 2013: -
On 30
August 2013, FII Sold INR 78.85 crs and DII Bought INR 731.07 crs
On Friday,
I have clearly quoted that GDP can come as bad as 4.50% and it should have been
discounted by market. We got GDP at 4.40% which is still little lower than
expected. This market might try to follow wild rules in panic mode. ‘Once fear
become reality then nothing much to fear further’. I saw some pattern in
BANKNIFTY which is suggesting me that now the time has come to pick banks for
trading rise. It seems that Bank Nifty may try to test levels of 10000 again.
USD vs INR – Charts are saying
that now the time has come for reversal. We may see some great strength in INR
`and vertical fall in USD. Separate window for Oil companies has helped it a
lot. It is beyond my understanding why they took this decision so late. Let see
if we can see some great comeback by INR. It is still very furious to predict
INR strength.
Now, let
us come back to NIFTY. I was already betting on recovery and I am still
retaining my views. I am expecting further extension on rise. 5509 is next
logical target and resistance. If Nifty manages to give close above 5520-5540
ranges then it may try to come near 50 DMA too. Remember, India is heavily
oversold charts amongst globe. 50 DMA is at 5715 as of now.
I am
expecting good trading support on metal, banks and auto stocks for this week. Prefer
to use any dip to buy rather than being a fashionable shorter. If you think
that I am expecting any reforms from government of India then I am sorry. I still
cannot see anything great coming from GoI. It is market dynamics which is
giving this pullback. One should not forget “death cross” structure. (Cross of
200 DMA by 50 DMA)
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is
trading flat. It is trying to take a pause after three days of massive rise. I am
expecting a flat opening and then rise after some consolidation. Charts are
saying to buy this dip for intraday. Real test will arise only above 5520
levels. It is challenging levels so one must watch for crossover to add fresh
long.
S&P
500
– US market will open tomorrow. As I said as long as 1624-1618 holds we should
wait to take further trades on short side. It has passed three days and not
gave any signal. My study still holds that as long as 1624-1618 holds, S&P
500 will try to accumulate of distribute for some time. I can say that it has
possibility of breaking lower below 1600 but concrete sell will generate below
1624-1618 only. Can it rebound? Somehow it is giving a feeling that rise will
sold out. Prefer shorting if comes above 1660.
I still
believe that US will not attack Seria. It does not matter how much threat is
being issued by President.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
