Monday, 12 January 2015
NIFTY weekly analysis for 12 January’15 to 16 January’15
Elliott wave theory: 5th wave is still intact
on weekly chart. It is suggesting for a final move in this wave sooner. Trend
is up with key support running near 8200-8150 levels for this week. I advise
caution for higher levels for this week. Caution advised if Nifty comes near
8445 levels. Let us see.
Market cycle: Historically, first two weeks of
January used to be bullish. So far, trend goes in the same way. I hope that we
may have some more upside after some consolidation. Question is – Will this
time a final top come in first two month of the year itself? A blow up top is
expected.
Technical indicators: It has crossed above 8335 and then a
shoot up 8445+ levels. Technical indicators are still not very concerning. Above
8445 we may see run away rise towards 8600+.
Charting pattern: Charting support will emerge at 8300
levels. As long as it is above 8300 levels we can expect this to up tend to
continue. Trend seems to be up and this is buy in dip market but add word of
caution on crucial resistances.
12 January 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still believe for a move towards 50 DMA which is now at 8334. I advise strong caution for second half of the month. Key resistance = 8445 & 8626 !!!
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 12 January 2015: -
On 09 January 2015, FII Sold INR 297.99 crs and DII Bought
INR 299.53 crs
Friday was so wild due to Infosys result. It was good to see
that Infosys came with better set of number while there were so many words of pessimism.
I have a view that Infosys came with good result and it may remain best result
of this season. Infosys result has set a land mark level for every corporate. I
strongly believe that global indices may see a blow up top before sell off.
At the beginning on the year itself I have presented a
bullish view for first two week of the month. This may extend but after a move
we may see a large sell off coming. This high may come here and there near to
previous high or a wave resistance of 8445. Take a note that this may not be
compulsion. It is the time for you to watch development happening in euro zone
market which can again affect the world.
Based on Elliott wave theory we are in corrective up wave ‘c’
which will also be divided in three waves as shown in given chart. It has
fulfilled the condition of top of wave ‘c’ in wave (b) itself. Big question is
that if this is only the pullback in wave ‘c’ then we may not see the violation
of 8445.
For today’s session, it will get a gap down opening. I can
hope that this may be any big gap down. So far in 2015, we saw gap opening
almost every day. This is just not good for traders. I consider 8250 and 8190
as key support if dip comes. On Higher side 8334, i.e. 50 DMA is still a key
resistance.
Take a note that only crude is not the only fear of market.
Ghost of Greece is also back in euro zone.
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Strategy for Nifty January
future – SGX Nifty is
giving me a hint for opening at 8290 levels. I am expecting another fluctuation
with massive degree. 8335 and 8370 will be key resistance and still under
capacity to hit. Bulls may take their attempt. Key support will be 8250 and
then at 8205 levels. I am strongly advising caution for the second half of the
month as said at the beginning of this month.
S&P 500 (USA) – I said that technical support stand
at 2050 to 2040. We saw the test of 2040 on Friday’s trading session. I still
believe for a blow up top. Hence, I am not shorting yet. This blow up top may
be final top. It seems that previous cycle of hitting top in the month of January
– February is back. If this has to happen then January top may be final one.
Have a look on support. 2040-2035 is immediate support.
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