You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 27
June 2013: -
On 26 June
2013, FII sold INR 547.79 crs and DII bought INR 336.98 crs.
It was
another day of money outflow by FII in Indian market. We saw Indian rupee
hitting 60.63 against USD. All thanks to RBI and MoF. It is weak Indian Rupee
which has given a dent in Indian market. If you look at global indices then one
can understand that those are out of ‘QE rollback’ shocks. Weak rupee is going
to fuel inflation further as fuel price hike is coming soon. Now, in order to
improve sentiment to minimize dollar out flow, RBI need to opt for bank rate
cut. It is beyond my understanding what RBI is waiting for.
I still
have a view that I will not short this market from 5600 levels as positive
divergence is emerging. As long as 5570-5545 is saving, I cannot see any big
reason to sell stocks without any recovery. Yesterday’s last 30 minutes selling
was due to rupee weakness. Market gave a huge punishment to many mid cap small
cap stocks which are supposed to give poor quarterly numbers on currency
weakness. At some point market will start ignoring ‘pessimism’. We should be
close that point. 2-3 days in time and 1 percent on Nifty may be considered as
approximation.
I have
already said yesterday that Nifty need to stand above 5640 at least. Once it
crosses 5640 then litmus test will come at 5690-5700. My technical condition
remains same. It is looking like to see higher opening. So, bears may see a
trap now.
Cabinet –
CCEA meeting is scheduled today to discuss gas pricing issue today.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is
giving signals for much better start. What is the reason for this kind of
higher trade on SGX Nifty? If we really going to see opening above 5640 (very
likely) then we will see bears to cover their shorts by force. It may hit 5683
then. I said earlier that 5683 is litmus test point for Nifty June future. Let us
see if it crosses by today.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
From a low
point of 1560, it got more than 3% rebound and closed well above 1600 marks. I have
already said that we may see fresh momentum on rise on the cross of 1600. We
got the condition and now expect further massive rise in US market. Technical charts
are saying that it may try to reach 1660 as long as it hild 1584 now.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
