You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
24 January 2017: -
On 20 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 288.80 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 519.99 Crs
Frankly, this kind of moves makes trader tired. I am just not going to
deal more till budget. It’s a frustrating market with on great direction. I am
almost sure that market will not get anything much from budget. It’s unnecessary
resilience against market dynamics. I am feeling that market had given one hint
of this happening with development of “W” pattern.
It is my speculation that Nifty can take a swing of 300-500 points on budget
day. My speculation is based on study of historical patterns on pre-budget
days. I am concluding this based on my study of 15 days moves before budget
every year.
For today’s trading I may not opt to trade index. I am feeling to
trade stocks only which are more comfortable. Nifty will not do anything. Do not
expect anything even on derivative expiry day. Only good thing is that I am
confident plan for budget day. I have same old levels for the day. On higher
side resistance will be at 8440 and 8470. In the lower side meaningful support
is at 8360 and 8330.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty January
future – Nifty future took a bounce yesterday and this was not making sense
on chart. Only thing that I can say that market do not want to fall before
budget. I must remind that nothing has changed on Elliott wave long term chart.
Market is bound to fail at top. January future is likely to hit levels like
8440 to 8470.
BANK NIFTY January future –
I was expecting 18500 and it reversed yesterday. Well, this makes me feel that
nothing is going to happen next for many days. It will just invite traders to
do mistake. If one wants to deal then prefer to take trades for not more than
100 points. This is the only way to trade. I am still not very sure that it can
show similar kind of strength after budget.
