You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
I have already said that central
banks across the globe are playing with fire of stock market. Now DOW JONES is
above 13000 levels. I am not going to change my views towards Indian market.
This week will be the litmus test of stimulus hopes and stimulus bulls.
If Nifty fails to cross above 5150
then we will see support at 5075. Break below 5075 will create panic test of
5040 > 5015 levels. Cross over of 5152 will result the test of 5192. You can
watch the above chart to see the retrenchments.
Do not touch for buy on any single
PSU banks in temptation. There can be some further massive slide. There is
something wrong. I have already warned about PSU banks many times in past too.
Best technical indicator of NIFTY:
(You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20
May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012 only. (It was not rising even in
Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.
Wave development: -
First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343
(Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.
Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496
(Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)
Take another calculation, wave 1 =
4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1
or wave 3.
Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5
= 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as
tougher hurdle to cross.
Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70
to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)
76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3
= 5288, which was roughly the high point of previous day trade.
I like to add one more point. This
rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as
reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100
levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.
So you should look for 5343 as first
hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance
can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not
close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.
