You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 11
March 2013: -
On 09 March
2013, FII bought INR 1283.58 crs and DII sold INR 836.58 crs.
FII make exit
from their short on final hour of Thursday’s trading with some big volume. Technical
charts are hinting for rise based on short covering. Characteristic of such
rise is impulsive rise in late trades. From past two trading sessions, rise
came in that way only.
It is
still a fact that Indian market are also moving from the day when Dow Jones hit
a fresh all-time high. It is global recovery where our market has also
participated. I cannot say that market undertone has changed a lot.
Technical charts
are giving hint that rise may continue for today also but not with any further
rapid pace. If you are not dealing long on oil stocks then this market is not
performing that well as it looks on index. For the lower side 5890 will act as
good trading support which is nearly 50 points away from current levels.
Market is
optimistic about up-coming RBI monetary policy review. I am also optimistic for
the rate cut but I am not optimistic for rise in stock market. Remember, I had
same view for 29 January’s policy review and we had a top at 6112 on very same
day. History will repeat again and we may see fall again.
I am not
saying immediate shorting. We may see some more rises but it is not like that
we are not going to fall. Fall will come at its own time. From this point of
time I am predicating for pressure on IT index, irrespective of strength in
benchmark Nifty.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – One should focus
on Friday’s high first. If Nifty March future trades above 5982 then you can
expect a move towards 6000 or 6030 levels for rise. We can expect trading
support at 5940-5930 levels. One must be ready to see surprise move in post 2
pm trades. First half may be silent but second half may turn to be violent. Up
or Down?
S&P
500
– I have already said for 1552 as a resistance which should not be crossed. It
came at 1552 but not able to manage further cross. It is remarkable that it has
again closed near day’s high and 1552. As long as it is above 1538, it is going
to save the bulls. We are near to top but still not at exact top. It has higher
chance of making a top this week which will be based on Fibonacci time retracement.
One must understand the big RSI negative divergence.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
