20 September 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It will take out support of 5584 in gap down. Break below 5525 will intensify the fall due to political heat. Final support for wave trend reversal is at 5449.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already suspected if Dr. Manmohan Singh was showing courage or doing adventure. Finally, it seems that he has taken some big risk for some ‘reforms’. I must say that in a democratic nation, one has a compulsion to move with step wise consensus. If he would have initiated these processes of reforms earlier (near 2-3 years back) then we would not be in this situation. So, I am concluding that it is a repercussion of phase of policy paralysis. He took ‘right step’ in a ‘wrong way’.

I am issuing a strong warning that any roll back in the process of reforms can back fire stock market in a wild way. You can say, that if rollback does not come then this government may fall. Well, Dr. Manmohan Singh has put himself in this situation. I fail to understand why to give importance to rating agencies so much. They are already very unfair with India’s rating. There are countries at Europe who are enjoying much better rating with extremely poor fundamental.

Elliott wave reversal will come at 5449. For today, market may open at 5550 levels. Then, immediate technical support will emerge at 5525 levels. Any adverse news flow on political front may put us on challenging fall. On political concerns, our market can fall as big as 10% from current levels.

There is another factor which I cannot ignore with Elliott wave marking. It is a shooting inflation. Suppose if we break 5449 trigger point with some ‘concerning data’ from inflation front then also we will see opening for down wave. We need to prepare for those. Watch out for support at 5525 and then at 5449.