You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
06 December 2016: -
On 05 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 317.85 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 163.64 Crs
A dead cat bounce came from nearby levels of 8050 yesterday. What can
be the possible outcome? I must say that bounce was impressive yesterday but
real test of this bounce will do today. Can it able to surpass 8160? A 200 DMA.
We have not seen follow up by bears or even bulls. Without follow up there
cannot be any trend. I am not expecting any trend to emerge sooner. If trend
has to come then it will come for down side only. Till then, it will be just countertrend
rise if possible. I will not be very active before RBI monetary policy review
for December.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Market is most
likely to be dead in first half. Even if volatility comes then also it cannot
be wider than 20-30 points. I am in favour of yesterday’s recovery as there is
no sign of dying yet. Let us see. Technical support will be at 8100-8080. On higher
side cross above 8160 is a desperate need for bulls to claim for 8200.
Technical resistance for Nifty is at 8250 and support is at 8125-8100.
Friday is going to be interesting.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – I have decisive position using option as instrument. Let us see
how market is likely to shape up today. It may be the week which will be
governed by events and its outcome. Time is on and we will see opening for
further down. There is a chance of flattish move this week. if that happens
then market will bounce from lower levels. Will it come?
BANK NIFTY – My call
remains same and this index is not same as Nifty. Below 18300 we can expect
18000. It hits 18700 and then took a “U” turn. It is suggesting that 18700 will
remains a decisive resistance on higher side. If fall continues from these
levels then it can hit levels of 18300 and then it may start a move towards
18000 levels. Can we have chance to see a cross above 18700. Well, unless this
happens do not trade long on this index. As long as it is above 18300, we can
expect another test of 18700. It may not be too easy but it is possible.
