I have already quoted for 254
seats for BJP on 09th May 2014 and bet on ‘Rally in stock price
based on Optimism’. This article is about rest of my political conclusion.
This is perhaps most intense
general election which I am watching in my life time. We saw war of words, more
than those extreme personal attacks. I think that no one is unbiased to
analyse. I saw people going brutal if someone refuses to accept their views. Example – If someone comments against Mr.
Narendra Modi, then few of their friends “unfollow” him on twitter or facebook
or may be even stopped talking to him or her. In some cases, I have noticed
stronger criticism which went beyond limits. This has happened in case of
political leaders too. This election is of
‘most emotional war’ of recent decades. Tolerance limits has reduced
substantially in our modern society.
So, dear friends, excuse me if my
words go against your views. I am very sorry in advance if my views hurt your
political views. Surely, this article may hurt some part of readers. Take it
just as a study and my duty.
I try my best to be on side-line
when I was analysing data. This given possible outcome is the outcome of my
mathematical research.
I gave weightage to survey agencies based on
their total number of sample and I gave higher weightage to those who gave data
nearest to poll dates. It has nothing to with NaMo wave or RaGa wave. I have
not watched any news channel from past more than two months and focus
completely on data analysis. Time to time, I am aware about all those remarks
and comments which were given by politicians to impress voters in any mean
including policy making talks.
Survey agencies whose data has
helped me a lot in my studies are as follow –
Times now, Cvoter, ABP News,
Nielsen, The week, Hansa Research, CNN-IBN, The Hindu, CSDS, India Today,
Lokniti and NDTV.
Few factors which are trend
decider for current election.
1. Series
of scams - UPA is close to pay price for Series of scams
2. Policy
Paralysis - Policy paralysis makes corporate angry and hence employees of
private sectors
3. Social
Media - This is most important – higher number tech savvy youth has voted first time who are surely has great
influence from internet and social media
4. Media
- Can we say that Media remains fair through out there election and related
reporting? Perhaps not.
5. Politics
of packaging – You all know what I am talking about. Rallies were planned like
a corporate event. Event managers were very active. In such cases, number of
people in crowd cannot represent true number of voters.
Do you
remember a name “Ajit Sarkar”? He used to keep few red towels in some main
location of his constituency with a message that give one rupee coin if you
want to support me. This was not done to collect election expenses. This was
done by him to know true number of voters. Democracy in India moved so far from these
ideological approaches.
Let us come to
conclusion fast,
a. My
studies have given 254 seats for BJP on standalone basis. Number of seat will
reach to 286 for current NDA. I am saying current NDA as I strongly believe
that few more parties will come to join NDA in post result days.
b. Congress
can end up near to 66 seats only. I am not happy with this as the role of
opposition in democracy is very important. If this really happen then democracy
will lose its meaning in term of opposition as it will be perhaps weakest and
less united opposition of past 25 years.
c. AITC
will emerge as third largest party followed by AIADMK. If my forecast goes
wrong and NDA misses few seats then Mamta Banargee and Jayalalita will be deciding
force of next government.
d. I
will surprise you most with this – Rahul Gandhi might win with smaller margin
or may fail to save Ameti seat. At least, it will not be easy win for him. I
gave 5 seats to INC in UP which may go to 4 if he loose from Ameti. Surely,
such predictions are not easy to make. Even a smaller swing can change the
result.
Few prime factors where poll
campaign goes wrong.
a. I
personally have strong objection on the language used by political leaders. It
gives a very wrong image to new voters.
Remember, national leaders must and must have decency. Thankfully,
number of such leaders were no very high.
b. Ruling
UPA failed to impress and they will be responsible for weak opposition. There were completely missing in plans and
there prime leaders were out of the field. It would have been better if they
would have come with promises and promises to punish the scam stars.
c. My
third point is most worrying some for me. We all know that a major part of
India votes on caste and such related mean. This time, new voters have voted
but major part of such youth has lesser political knowledge. This is based on my personal observation on
personal meeting and different interaction sources. Many of my friends may
dis-agree with me. I am happy if I am wrong here.
Do you how most Indian are
voting? This is most bitter answer.
Their sole objective is “My vote
should not be wasted”. I always believe
that there is nothing absolutely right or absolutely wrong in democracy. Still,
people need to be less emotional and should try to pick who is right for you in
your constituency.
I study the economic cycles. It
shows this fact – “It does not matter who form the government, he/She will face
extremely high troubles in running the government.” The fate of upcoming
government is to face extremely tough economic climate. Long back, people used
to ask me if we can see mid-term poll before 2014 or not. My answer was – “I do
not know if we can have midterm poll before 2014 or not but chances are bright
for midterm for post 2014 election.”
I can take a better call after
may 16th.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
