You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 15
July 2013: -
On 12 July
2013, FII bought INR 644.82 crs and DII Sold INR 144.97 crs.
FII has
bought Indian market from past four trading sessions. Some may say that it is
weaker rally but the fact is that Nifty moved higher by 450 points from its
recent bottom without any great FII support. Just imagine, even rupee weakness
has failed to stop Nifty from moving higher. This rise is a result of excessive
pessimism and will have life as long as bears give fuel. Some correction here
and there is possible but overall trends remains higher.
May month
IIP Data - contraction by 1.60%. Means negative 1.60%. CPI came 9.87%. I fail
to understand what RBI is doing and waiting for. I can clearly blame RBI for
their inactiveness. Neither they are able to curb inflation nor able to support
growth. My view is that be stop worrying (giving excuses) about inflation and
do something for growth. I guarantee that with this kind of policy we will get
just one thing – Slowdown in India. Auto sales figures are already showing this
pain.
Difference
between hope of rise and fear of fall is just one person – RBI governor.
Technical
charts are suggesting that we may have some pause but rise should continue. We
already got reverse H&S break out. It is giving some elevated targets. I
expect trading support at 5970 and trend support at 5940. On higher side crossover
of 6035 should give 6100 levels.
Keep an
eye on corporate earnings. Market may reward even those results which are in
line with expectation.
Strategy
for Nifty July future – SGX JULY NIFTY is
trading on dead note. Take a note that it was trading with a loss of 30 – 40 points
on Friday night. Market is expecting that bad economy data should put pressure
on RBI for rate cut. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 6100
levels. Intraday long is possible only on the cross of threshold of 6040.
S&P
500
– Current formation is giving a hint that S&P 500 will give a new all-time
high by July month itself or by first week of August.
It came at
1680 and it is just 8 points away from its all-time high. Road map of S&P
500 is stronger than any index of the world. It is rising from 1560 and one
pullback seems to be due but this is not a compulsion. We are going to see new
all-time very soon. Take a note that small cap index Russell 2000 is already come
at new high. Note that maximum pullback can bring S&P 500 at 1655, not more
than that. Suppose if it crosses 1688 then expect runaway move towards 1700. I
will use any dip to buy only.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
