You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
(Strong precaution – apply long
trading calls on just one condition – that is – if Nifty stand positive. I have
mentioned SESAGOA and SBIN, must follow this condition before trade).
It is just not making sense about
this kind of choppy trading sessions. Nifty is too silent near to the
resistance of 5343. We got a crossover of 5209 in a gap up and then three days
of silence. I cannot change my study on almost flat close. Wave count remains
same as of now. Any advance above 5434 will ask the technician to change the
levels.
For today also, 5317-5318 will play major
role. If trades sustain above 5318 then only we can think about the test of
5343 else one can just expect support at 5260. Break of 5260 will push us
towards 5248 too.
Best technical indicator of NIFTY:
(You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011 , it started rising from 5 June
2012
only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.
First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343
(Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.
Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496
(Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)
Take another calculation, wave 1 =
4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1
or wave 3.
Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5
= 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as
tougher hurdle to cross.
Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70
to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)
76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3
= 5288, which was roughly the high point
I like to add one more point. This
rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as
reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100
levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.
So you should look for 5343 as first
hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance
can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not
close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.
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Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
