06 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today’s high can turn to be a possible trap for bulls. 101% be cautious and stay away from long.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

06 January 2017: -

On 05 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 86.88 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 449.07 Crs

Nifty came very near to 8300 levels. This is definitely against my expectation. In fact every time it comes above 8200-8250 zones it refuses to give up easily although market used to fail to get buyers at higher levels. I can say, “When it looks all good it will turn to be all bad.” Hence, I can say that this higher level invites a trap at these levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat to positive start. Bank Nifty is relatively weaker than index or one can say a under performer. Sectoral indices should be better than bluechip index if it has to sustain at top and that’s the cue I am taking as higher levels caution. I have no levels to talk as I have presented a chart. It is my view that Nifty should not stand tall above 8300. There is no point to believe up.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – This is a shocker for me. A gap up trade from 8204 to almost 8250 and this gap up maintains with follow up of up side. Is market shaping for another gap up. Charts are not saying that gap up is possible or it can sustain. 101%, be cautious today. I will not deal at all on long side.  

BANK NIFTY – Well, one can talk and one can think for 18300-18400 on Bank nifty but I see a possible failure at top. Who knows if top comes in just first 15 minutes of trade. Technical support is at 18050-18000 levels. I can trade on top shorting. I want to pick a top before I deal.