Wednesday, 17 September 2014
17 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: if it does not revive from 7920 then 7850 to 7825 is also possible. If revive then 20 DMA @ 8013 will act as stiff resistance after opening.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 17 September 2014: -
On 16 September 2014, FII Sold INR 828.95 crs and DII Bought
INR 461.65 crs
Nifty hit the lowest levels after 28 August 2014. Most
miserable part is that it has immediately cracked in a big way below 20 DMA
which was at 8010. Now, as of now 20 DMA is at 8013. I have mentioned about
H&S target of 7920 which was applicable below 8050 levels.
Now, we got rise in US market last night with a fresh
formation of bullish pattern. One more positive close will head US market for
another round of rise which will have capacity to surpass 2011 and shoot up by
3-4% more. I still have a condition; confirmation will come on close above
2000.
So, in all, today’s closing will be most crucial for rest of
the month or perhaps rest of the year too. This is applicable for Indian market
and rest of the global indices too. Guess what can be fed outcome.
For today’s trading session, opening may come in the range of
7970. It should be higher after rise in US market. Technical set up may not
change much even after that. Based on chart, if Nifty does not stand tall above
8000 quickly then a fresh dip is very likely. Take a note that 20 DMA which is
now at 8013 will act as stiff resistance.
Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor –
Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear
on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for
emerging market. I hope that we will get clarity by tonight itself.
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Strategy for Nifty September
future – Nifty September
future should open in the range of 7990 with some recovery after US market
rise. It will have immediate resistance at 8010 and then at 8040+ levels. If it
does not make equalizer by today itself again yesterday’s fall then next round
of sell off will be likely which can drag Nifty towards 7900 to 7850 too before
emerging meaningful support.
S&P 500 (USA) – So far, I named every bounce as
weak bounce but yesterday’s bounce is a strong one. Stronger than what it
looks. If S&P can climb up from 1979 to 2002 in just a single session then
it must be a sign of momentum. If I have to conclude about fed outcome based on
charts then I cannot say that it can favour bears. In clear words, above 2000
S&P is bullish again. Crossover of 2011 will lead us to a mammoth rally of
further 3-4% higher. I like to be neutral from now onwards till it moves in the
range of 1975 to 2013. I will trade same direction if it breaks anyone of these
figures.
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