You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 13
March 2013: -
On 12 March
2013, FII bought INR 733.25 crs and DII sold INR 877.38 crs.
I have
suspected the fall which came yesterday and it came in its own wild style. We have
seen massive volatility in last 90 minutes of trading. Failure above 5971 is
giving sell signal for the first target towards 5890. It did in two trading
sessions and came at 5893 yesterday.
Now, we
are on 8th day from the recent low of 5663. One must prefer to watch
for the reaction at 5890 levels. Once it breaks 5890 then we can hope for a
move towards 5835 to 5800 levels.
This market
is again hoping for rate cut in up-coming monetary policy review. In fact,
market is already discounting 25 bps repo rate cut. Yesterday, we got IIP data
at 2.40% and CPI data at 10.91. These numbers are reducing the hope of rate
cut. Do, you know that Indian CPI data is second highest amongst remarkable
economies.
World
market came for pause but not for fall yet. Indian market has a history of fall
whenever world market goes for pause in past more than a month. Dow Jones
closed positive again for the eighth day in a row. European markets are still
concern about Italy but bond buying program remains unaffected.
One must note
that VIX has seen rise of 6% yesterday and closed at 15.37, this is alarming
factor for the market.
My view is
that as long as it is staying below 5971 we cannot see any remarkable rise.
Once it breaks 5890 then we can hope for further 60-90 points of fall.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – I have quoted 5910
as support and it has tested 5916 as a low. I am more interested to see it
breaking below 5910. Once it breaks 5910 then we can see movement towards 5850.
Somehow it is showing that market momentum is again changing. One must note
that remarkable resistance will be only at 5990 levels. It is looking like to
see a big fall in coming few days again, same as February month series.
Yesterday, 5400 put shoot up by 105%. Something is troubling bulls.
S&P
500
– It has a high at 1556.77 yesterday. It has seen some profit taking. When it
is at 1556, one can name it as top for selling and one can be right but that
can never be good idea. This top or any top can be confirmed only if it manages
to close below 1538 levels. I am expecting this to happen sooner but there is
no such real sign. I am advising to watch US SPX VIX closely. It will give us
first indication for bigger and bigger fall. Let it move above 14 to play for
big bet, it may come sooner than what you can expect.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
