You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 24
June 2013: -
On 21 June
2013, FII sold INR 1768.60 crs and DII bought INR 1196.55 crs.
It is
almost 8000 crs selling so far in June month by FII. They have sold massively
in bond market too. Those have caused a weaker Indian rupee. I must say that long
under performance was already indicating for this FII selling. I believe that
weak FII money is moving out of Indian market. It is difficult to say if it is
over or not. FII have sold after May 2012. So, we got May month selling and it
is now more than a month. It is looking like we are moving towards the end of
this selling.
Technical
charts are indicating that we are moving towards some phase of normalcy after
Fed shock. Nifty has early sign of positive divergence on daily chart. We got
five weeks of consecutive selling and now we are on sixth week.
I will
again focus on Indian rupee and I want to go near to 58 only to feel some comfort
which is still too far. It is looking like market has overdone on fed decision.
At least I did never believe that QE is going to be forever. Global market will
get some sort of support from early this week itself. Fresh worry is coming
from Greece again with a threat of mid-term poll. Let us see how it is going to
shape up.
Nifty has technical support at 5600-5610 levels. As long as 5600 hold you
can expect a short covering rally as we are in derivative expiry week. Derivative
data is suggesting that people are still betting on further downside but those
may see a trap if 5600 saves.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – SGX NIFTY is giving
a sign of 20 – 25 points’ lower start as of now. June month future is giving
for opening at 5630-5635. I am feeling for little better start than what SGX is
giving right now. After opening, we must see if it can save 5610 support or not.
If it saves 5610-5600 then we should prepare some recovery. I will be more optimistic
if we get trades above 5683 somehow. I will bet strongly on short covering
after a cross above 5683. You can say that market feel comfortable above 5683
only.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
Now majority
of traders should agree with above sentence. S&P got exact pause at 100 DMA
which was at 1577 and Friday’s low was also same. Assume that 100 DMA will not
break so easily. I want a close above 1600 to conclude for strength. So, today
will be a day to wait. Caution – if it breaks 1575 then it will prefer to make
a move towards 1540-1530. Let us see what market wants.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
