Monday, 3 November 2014
03 November 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We may see possible top at 8416 levels but higher levels demands caution. Technical support – 8180-8200 !!!
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 03 November 2014: -
On 31 October 2014, FII Bought INR 1754.73 crs and DII Sold
INR 276.49 crs
Above 8182, Nifty has generated a fresh up wave which is impulsive
in nature. We saw many gaps up in past 10 trading sessions. A possible top may
emerge at 8416. A cross above 8416 may trigger for more upside. We may see
another gap up today also. This may irritate those traders who do not prefer to
hold over night positions.
Moving forwards, Nifty will see support at 8180 to 8200
levels which was acting as resistance earlier. One needs to note that even
after sharp rise, we have not seen any short signal yet on Nifty. A short was
coming on Bank Nifty but that’s also moved above 17k marks to turn to buy.
For today’s trading session, opening may come in the range of
8350 levels. It is obvious to expect higher levels after a new all-time high. As
of now, I am expecting Nifty to come near to 8416 levels which is 100% retrenchment
of wave ‘1’. I still just not prefer to buy the rise as it is heavily
overbought in short term chart. Hourly charts are advising caution for intraday
trade from impulsive waves.
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Strategy for Nifty November
future – We may see opening
near 8400 levels. We saw run from 7760 to 8400 levels too fast in too furious
way. Almost 30% rise came in gap up mode. Most important is that almost every
technical trigger goes in gap up and none has filled yet. I again suggest waiting
for intraday updates for better technical view point. So far, it’s up and buy. There
is no short signal.
S&P 500 (USA) – When S&P was below 1850 and
everyone was bearish, I said for buy. Now, when everyone is so bullish, I am
saying reverse. Do not buy. Above 2020, a rise is possible towards 2040 but
nothing can sustain on rise. A quick dip may come after making a top. Let the
rise go on. So far, sell signal has not came but it is close to form that only due
to sharp rise. A possible 60-70 points dip may come sooner.
NIFTY weekly analysis for 03 November’14 to 07 November’14
Elliott wave theory: It was predicted to expect rise
towards 8100-8181 and a cross above 8181 could change wave structure. It goes
in same way. We will start week at 8320+ levels. Next meaningful resistance or
a figure to top may come at 8416. This is if wave 5 retrace completely of wave
1. Do not buy rise as we have many gap up in past 10 days. We have just three
trading days in this week.
Market cycle: We can expect some more gain on
Nifty this week due to global strength too. We have five weeks of dip and three
weeks of rise so far.
Technical indicators: Key momentum indicators are on ‘no
harm for bulls’ mode. Hence, I am still not worried about any big negative
divergence.
Charting pattern: Here is something which can disturb
bulls. Rise from 7720 to 8320 is full 600 points. It has no correction and it
have many gap up. This makes market vulnerable near top. A top can come with at
8416 or nearby. Above 8416, a quick-fire rise can hit.
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