You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
Firstly I need to conclude that it
was a shy touch of 5912. I can give a discount of 4-5 points as approximation. It
has traded till 5917 and then closed with a small gain. Government of India
Member of parliaments of SP and BSP
opposes FDI in retail while they were discussing the topic in parliament. When it
comes to voting they walk out of parliament to save ‘the decision of government’.
When someone asked them the reasons they said that let us not talk about the
voting. It was our way of protest. Both parties belong to the states when
majority of self employment are coming in from retail sector. I need to
conclude that they gave their half hearted support to FDI in retail.
This should be termed as ‘politics
of comfort’. Is it too much political? Yes, you must feel in that way. I need
to say that our nation requires strong and bold steps of reforms and those are
not possible with “politics of comfort’. It requires joint and cumulative
efforts and this is missing. They way things are progressing I doubt if we can
expect too many bold steps ahead.
Let us come back to the technical
studies. 5912 is still acting as resistance. Remember that 5912 is 23.60% retrenchment
from 6338 against the fall from 6338 to 4531 (I am quoting this resistance well
in advance). We need to see some comfortable trade above 5912. This is the
reason that in spite of best efforts it was never comfortable above 5912. Candle
patterns are suggesting that this pause will drive to a pullback. There cannot
be anything to worry about trend as long as we are above 5820-5800 support.
Few days back I wrote that market
might fall after voting in parliament irrespective of outcome. Few weeks back I
betted on fall in US market in post president election day irrespective of
outcome. I am not shorting in aggressive ways but I will not buy @ 5900 without
a pullback. Let us see. I do not think that I need to change my conclusion.
Conclusion Nifty: Then we will have technical
support in the following way 5850 > 5820 > 5800 > final @ 5770. There
will be few important resistances, one is at 5900. Assuming for 62% of wave 1 is
giving me resistance at 5905. I am considering that 5900 to 5912 (~5918) will
be a zone of resistance. Dip can be the opportunity to buy. Cross over of 5912
will give towards 5950 and then 6000 marks to give extension in fifth wave.
S&P 500 – I have said that support is there
at 1405 and break below 1405 will drive towards 1390 but this dip is an
opportunity to buy. We have seen fall from 1424 and seen a low at 1398
yesterday. Then a technical rebound came to confirm that yes pullback was an
opportunity to buy, it was hitting 1415 too. Broadly we are in the range as
said in my weekly study. There is nothing much to change. As long as we are not
closing below 1405, we are little safe. We are almost end of week and now I will
say that one should avoid touching rise or fall. Do not expect pullback every
time. It has seen two pullbacks. Rock hard support is at 1390. Will it break?
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
