You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 28 October 2016: -
On 27 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 469.93 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 856.50 Crs
Well, I was convinced with a fall on expiry day and we saw 8550 levels
but then something has happened which used to happen on expiry day. A bounce. Fine,
it has one great indication for me. The bounce came due to short covering it
means that market has short position. Covering is suggesting that market may
add short position again.
I am again quoting that 8500 is a key support which is likely to break
sooner or later. I am not accepting that 8600 may have any meaning now. I have
a firm believe that if it breaks 8500 now then market will open scope for
levels of 8200-800 which is based on H&S pattern developing. Well, we
require more confirmation. One thing is clear; I am not going to take any long
this on this DIWALI day.
For today’s trading session I am suggesting that if you want to
peaceful DIWALI then just do not be bull. Do not buy anything and believe my
long term view. Today is Friday and market may complete its move what it has
not done yesterday. I mean to say for the test of 8500 levels.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty November
future –November future contract has seen close at 8660. Opps!!! I was not
expecting this. Worse part is that we are going to see gap down today. I was
right but market force me to miss this move. I am digesting as you cannot
expect outcome as you planned. I need to make a new strategy but that will also
on short side. If opening goes near 8600 then wait for a bounce to short. 8680
may be very tougher to cross.
BANK NIFTY – 19500 keeps
the key with itself. I suggest ignoring what has happened on expiry day. Market
will start giving up very sooner at support levels. Technical charts are giving
a sell to a strong sell if we start seeing below 19500 levels. My anticipated
target is at 18700 which are based on Elliott wave count. I am extremely as I cannot
publish my wave count as those starts unnecessary debate. Very recent, traders
try to convince me to be bullish at 8800+ levels.
