Monday 27 February 2012
Thursday 23 February 2012
Wave theory has given a fall from 5610-5640. HOW?
(We provide these study in advance to paid subscribers only)
Please read my jan article - http://viecapital.blogspot.in/2012/01/nifty-technical-views-as-on-closing-11.html
Tuesday 14 February 2012
January inflation eases to 6.55% MoM
January wholesale inflation has eased to 6.55% (MoM) against 7.47% in the last month.
C Rangarajan of PMEAC believes the environment is conducive for a change in policy stance. "We will need to look at the trajectory of manufacturing inflation," he says adding, "the prices coming down in that space is very encouraging."
He says the inflation is likely to remain stable at current levels or thereabouts.
Here is a snapshot:
C Rangarajan of PMEAC believes the environment is conducive for a change in policy stance. "We will need to look at the trajectory of manufacturing inflation," he says adding, "the prices coming down in that space is very encouraging."
He says the inflation is likely to remain stable at current levels or thereabouts.
Here is a snapshot:
- Jan primary articles inflation at 2.25% Vs 3.07% (MoM)
- Jan WPI primary articles index up 0.5%
- Jan food articles inflation at -0.52% Vs 0.74% (MoM)
- Jan food articles index down up 0.3% (MoM)
- Jan fuel group inflation at 14.21% Vs 14.91% (MoM)
- Jan fuel group index up 0.1% (MoM)
- Jan manufacturing products inflation at 6.49% Vs 7.41% (MoM)
- Jan manufacturing products index :: Up 0.4% (MoM)
- Jan all commodities index up 0.5% (MoM)
Saturday 11 February 2012
Factbox: Euro zone debt crisis: coming events
(Reuters) - Following are coming events linked to the debt crisis in the euro zone:
EUROPEAN UNION:
February 20 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
February 21 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
March 1-2 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.
March 12 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
March 13 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
March 30/31 - Informal meeting of European Union finance ministers in Copenhagen.
May 14 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
May 15 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
June 20 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg.
June 21 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Luxembourg.
June 28/29 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.
GREECE:
POLITICS:
-- Leaders of the three parties in the Greek government reached agreement on Thursday on more austerity to secure a second bailout package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund to avoid a messy default.
-- Euro zone finance ministers said Athens needed to make more cuts to convince them to release a second financial bailout package.
-- But with elections looming as early as April, politicians are not eager to accept more pain for ordinary Greeks which risks plunging the economy deeper into recession.
-- Euro zone officials say the full rescue package must be agreed with Greece and approved by the EU, IMF and European Central Bank by February 15 so legal paperwork can be completed before a 14.5 billion euros in government bonds mature on March 20.
-- Public and private sector unions ADEDY and GSEE hold a 48-hour general strike on Friday and Saturday against the new austerity measures and have called rallies in central Athens at 0900 GMT on Friday and Saturday, plus 1500 GMT on Sunday.
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUPPLY:
-- Athens is expected to continue monthly auctions of 3- and 6-month T-bills in February as it needs to refinance a total of 2.6 billion euros of maturing paper. Monthly T-bill sales are Greece's sole source of market funding.
-- February 14 - Auction of 3-month T-bills
DATA:
-- February 17 - January EU-harmonized inflation
-- February 20 - December current account deficit
ITALY:
-- Italy's government is negotiating labor market reforms with unions as the next step in a strategy aimed at stimulating chronically weak growth and shoring up public finances.
-- Prime Minister Mario Monti says he wants to reform a system that offers too much protection to salaried employees in medium-sized and large companies, while offering virtually no rights or protection to growing legions of mostly young people on temporary contracts.
-- Monti has said the package will be presented by end-March at the latest.
-- In January, the government presented plans to abolish minimum fees for professional services, increase the number of pharmacies and change the rules governing several other services with the aim of boosting competition. The measures are still before parliament and must be approved by mid-March.
-- The service sector reforms follow an austerity program already approved by parliament which includes the reintroduction of a housing tax, pension reform and spending cuts.
-- A number of relatively successful bond auctions, and optimism over Greece avoiding imminent default, have brought Italy's 10-year bond yields down to below 5.5 percent from peaks close to 8 percent near the end of last year.
POLITICS:
-- Ongoing negotiations between government and unions over reform of labor market rules.
DEBT ISSUES:
February 13 - Auction of 12 bln euros of short-term bills (BOTs)
February 14 - Auction of fixed rate bonds (BTPs)
GERMANY:
POLITICS
February 28 - Constitutional Court rules whether a parliamentary committee set up to meet in secret to approve urgent action by the euro zone bailout fund breaks the law.
March 25 - German state of Saarland holds elections after the conservative-led government with the Greens and the Free Democrats there collapsed in early January.
May 6 - Elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.
ECONOMY:
-- February 13-15 - January wholesale prices.
-- February 14 - February ZEW economic sentiment.
-- February 15 - Q4 flash GDP.
-- February 17 - January producer prices.
DEBT:
-- February 13 - New 6-month Bubill.
SPAIN:
REFORM/ECONOMY:
-- February 10 - Labor reform to be presented.
-- Budget to be presented at end of March.
DATA RELEASES:
-- February 14 - Spanish banks' ECB borrowing data for January
-- February 15 - Spain inflation January
-- February 16 - Q4 final GDP
-- February 29 - Feb flash inflation
-- February 29 - Current account December
DEBT ISSUES:
-- February 14 - 12, 18 month T-bills
-- February 16 - Bond auction
PORTUGAL:
-- Portugal's international lenders will next week begin assessing the country's compliance with its 78-billion-euro bailout, against a backdrop of concerns it may eventually have to sign up for a second rescue package.
-- It met the 2011 budget deficit target agreed with the lenders using extraordinary, one-off measures and said it expects to meet the 2012 goal after deepening its austerity drive.
-- Portugal's economy is expected to contract 3 percent this year after an estimated GDP drop of 1.6 percent in 2011 as the government enacts tough spending cuts and across-the-board tax hikes.
POLITICS:
February 11 - Rally in Lisbon against austerity, labor market reforms, organized by CGTP union.
February 15 - European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund inspectors start assessing Portugal's performance under the bailout in the third quarterly evaluation. Mission to last about two weeks.
February 17 - Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho takes part in parliament debate.
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUPPLY:
February 15 - IGCP debt agency offers between 1.5 billion euros and 1.75 billion euros total in 3-month and 6-month T-bills.
March 21 - IGCP debt agency offers between 750 million euros and 1 billion euros total in 4-month and 6-month T-bills.
IRELAND:
-- Ireland, as of December 2011, had drawn down 34.5 billion of the 67.5 billion euros in loans it is taking from the EU and the IMF as part of its three-year 85 billion euro bailout package agreed in November 2010.
-- Officials from the ECB, European Commission and IMF completed the latest quarterly review of Ireland's bailout on January 19 and said Dublin was meeting all its targets. [ID:nL6E8CJ2K9]
-- Dublin has recapitalized the country's four remaining lenders to meet its target under the EU/IMF bailout, pouring in nearly 17 billion euros of additional state funds.
GOALS TO BE MET UNDER EU/IMF PACKAGE:
End Q1 2012 - Government will introduce a fiscal responsibility bill.
End April 2012 - Government to introduce legislation to reform the personal debt regime in order to lower the cost and increase the speed of proceedings.
November 2012 - Results of fresh bank stress tests.
DATA DUE FOR RELEASE:
February 10 - Industrial production
February 10 - Irish C.bank releases details on ECB borrowing
February 15 - External trade in December (provisional)
Source: Reuters bureaux
EUROPEAN UNION:
February 20 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
February 21 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
March 1-2 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.
March 12 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
March 13 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
March 30/31 - Informal meeting of European Union finance ministers in Copenhagen.
May 14 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels.
May 15 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels.
June 20 - Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg.
June 21 - Ecofin meeting of European Union finance ministers in Luxembourg.
June 28/29 - Summit of EU heads of state and government in Brussels.
GREECE:
POLITICS:
-- Leaders of the three parties in the Greek government reached agreement on Thursday on more austerity to secure a second bailout package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund to avoid a messy default.
-- Euro zone finance ministers said Athens needed to make more cuts to convince them to release a second financial bailout package.
-- But with elections looming as early as April, politicians are not eager to accept more pain for ordinary Greeks which risks plunging the economy deeper into recession.
-- Euro zone officials say the full rescue package must be agreed with Greece and approved by the EU, IMF and European Central Bank by February 15 so legal paperwork can be completed before a 14.5 billion euros in government bonds mature on March 20.
-- Public and private sector unions ADEDY and GSEE hold a 48-hour general strike on Friday and Saturday against the new austerity measures and have called rallies in central Athens at 0900 GMT on Friday and Saturday, plus 1500 GMT on Sunday.
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUPPLY:
-- Athens is expected to continue monthly auctions of 3- and 6-month T-bills in February as it needs to refinance a total of 2.6 billion euros of maturing paper. Monthly T-bill sales are Greece's sole source of market funding.
-- February 14 - Auction of 3-month T-bills
DATA:
-- February 17 - January EU-harmonized inflation
-- February 20 - December current account deficit
ITALY:
-- Italy's government is negotiating labor market reforms with unions as the next step in a strategy aimed at stimulating chronically weak growth and shoring up public finances.
-- Prime Minister Mario Monti says he wants to reform a system that offers too much protection to salaried employees in medium-sized and large companies, while offering virtually no rights or protection to growing legions of mostly young people on temporary contracts.
-- Monti has said the package will be presented by end-March at the latest.
-- In January, the government presented plans to abolish minimum fees for professional services, increase the number of pharmacies and change the rules governing several other services with the aim of boosting competition. The measures are still before parliament and must be approved by mid-March.
-- The service sector reforms follow an austerity program already approved by parliament which includes the reintroduction of a housing tax, pension reform and spending cuts.
-- A number of relatively successful bond auctions, and optimism over Greece avoiding imminent default, have brought Italy's 10-year bond yields down to below 5.5 percent from peaks close to 8 percent near the end of last year.
POLITICS:
-- Ongoing negotiations between government and unions over reform of labor market rules.
DEBT ISSUES:
February 13 - Auction of 12 bln euros of short-term bills (BOTs)
February 14 - Auction of fixed rate bonds (BTPs)
GERMANY:
POLITICS
February 28 - Constitutional Court rules whether a parliamentary committee set up to meet in secret to approve urgent action by the euro zone bailout fund breaks the law.
March 25 - German state of Saarland holds elections after the conservative-led government with the Greens and the Free Democrats there collapsed in early January.
May 6 - Elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein.
ECONOMY:
-- February 13-15 - January wholesale prices.
-- February 14 - February ZEW economic sentiment.
-- February 15 - Q4 flash GDP.
-- February 17 - January producer prices.
DEBT:
-- February 13 - New 6-month Bubill.
SPAIN:
REFORM/ECONOMY:
-- February 10 - Labor reform to be presented.
-- Budget to be presented at end of March.
DATA RELEASES:
-- February 14 - Spanish banks' ECB borrowing data for January
-- February 15 - Spain inflation January
-- February 16 - Q4 final GDP
-- February 29 - Feb flash inflation
-- February 29 - Current account December
DEBT ISSUES:
-- February 14 - 12, 18 month T-bills
-- February 16 - Bond auction
PORTUGAL:
-- Portugal's international lenders will next week begin assessing the country's compliance with its 78-billion-euro bailout, against a backdrop of concerns it may eventually have to sign up for a second rescue package.
-- It met the 2011 budget deficit target agreed with the lenders using extraordinary, one-off measures and said it expects to meet the 2012 goal after deepening its austerity drive.
-- Portugal's economy is expected to contract 3 percent this year after an estimated GDP drop of 1.6 percent in 2011 as the government enacts tough spending cuts and across-the-board tax hikes.
POLITICS:
February 11 - Rally in Lisbon against austerity, labor market reforms, organized by CGTP union.
February 15 - European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund inspectors start assessing Portugal's performance under the bailout in the third quarterly evaluation. Mission to last about two weeks.
February 17 - Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho takes part in parliament debate.
GOVERNMENT DEBT SUPPLY:
February 15 - IGCP debt agency offers between 1.5 billion euros and 1.75 billion euros total in 3-month and 6-month T-bills.
March 21 - IGCP debt agency offers between 750 million euros and 1 billion euros total in 4-month and 6-month T-bills.
IRELAND:
-- Ireland, as of December 2011, had drawn down 34.5 billion of the 67.5 billion euros in loans it is taking from the EU and the IMF as part of its three-year 85 billion euro bailout package agreed in November 2010.
-- Officials from the ECB, European Commission and IMF completed the latest quarterly review of Ireland's bailout on January 19 and said Dublin was meeting all its targets. [ID:nL6E8CJ2K9]
-- Dublin has recapitalized the country's four remaining lenders to meet its target under the EU/IMF bailout, pouring in nearly 17 billion euros of additional state funds.
GOALS TO BE MET UNDER EU/IMF PACKAGE:
End Q1 2012 - Government will introduce a fiscal responsibility bill.
End April 2012 - Government to introduce legislation to reform the personal debt regime in order to lower the cost and increase the speed of proceedings.
November 2012 - Results of fresh bank stress tests.
DATA DUE FOR RELEASE:
February 10 - Industrial production
February 10 - Irish C.bank releases details on ECB borrowing
February 15 - External trade in December (provisional)
Source: Reuters bureaux
Weekly FIBO count NSE NIFTY
How to read above chart?
Its weekly chart of nsenifty.
All figures indicated above the candle indicates the number of weeks of consecutive rise.
All figures indicated below the candle indicates the number of weeks of consecutive fall.
All figures indicated above the candle indicates the number of weeks of consecutive rise.
All figures indicated below the candle indicates the number of weeks of consecutive fall.
Those nuber are falling to fibonacci series.
Fibonacci series,
0,0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 ... ... ... kepp on adding last two.
0,0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 ... ... ... kepp on adding last two.
Current rally is in sixth week and may not continue with same momentum.
Above the the study based close of 3rd February. We have seen dead flat close for the week ending 10 February.
Above the the study based close of 3rd February. We have seen dead flat close for the week ending 10 February.
Thanks for reading,
Praveen Kumar
Contact mail id - praveen@viecapital.com
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