You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 14 October 2016: -
On 13 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 911.53 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 679.49 Crs
Well, my target has done as of now. Worse part is that it came with a
big gap down. This is most unfavourable kind of trading session. What is next
for technical now? I must say that 8500 is a meaningful short term support for
Nifty. Now, from near to 8500, traders should not add short from lower levels. I
am still expecting extension of fall but with some bounce.
A chance for bounce is bright today but this is not a technical call. It
is most common psychology of market that good days used to come immediate after
bad day.
I have already forecasted for a fall once market goes in full trade
mode and that will start from today. ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the
range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner. I am keeping this
part for some time for my analysis.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open with flat
note or may be little positive. Then, market may like to retrace up to
8620-8650 levels. Chances are there for higher levels but that’s backed by only
due to yesterday’s gap down. It should be an attempt for gap fill but that’s not
possible to fill. Hence, my expectation is a recovery in first half and then
fall in second half. Technical signal for trade has yet to be generated.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty October
future – I am optimistic for recovery but this is not a call yet. This this
fails then we can see further cut of 70-80 points from current levels. On higher
side 8620-8650 is a zone of resistance. Let us see if recovery comes or fall
continues.
BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty came
very near to 18800 and this may be too much for a day. I am not advising fresh
short form lower levels without any bounce. Day may be unfavourable for
recovery in second half. We do not have
any clear sign of taking a call on recovery but this is my expectation. Let us
see if this works.
