You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
16 December 2016: -
On 15 December 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 611.97 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 177.48 Crs
This flip flow continues and goes worse in last trading session. A strong
100 points of bounce from lower levels and that’s in just 15 minutes was much
more than enough to shake any bear’s head. Well, hence I was not short at any
point on Nifty future. A “W” pattern is visible now which was my expectation. I
can say that market is not tradable even today.
It is simple that the range of 8275 to 8125 is not tradable. Can we
expect the break sooner? Well, I feel that we can expect the break on down side
only but it may happen next week only. It is strongly advisable not to deal
many unless clear signal emerges. It is not that 40-50 points of moves are not
coming but in is not in line to trade.
For today’s trading I am expecting a flat opening. Thereafter, once
again same thing is going to happen, bulls and bears fight which will not come
to any conclusion. Without any conclusion I will not participate on market. I can
say that one can keep an eye on 8100-8120 support band. If this breaks then
only think to trade. On higher side, we are too far from comfort levels.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested
for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first
to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – I gave a support yesterday at 8120-8100 and Nifty took a “U” turn
but gave up a big part in second half. This suggests me that up move will not
be easier. Well, I still say that do not trade on dicey signals. “W” pattern
will not give fruitful trade. I am expecting fall next week which should be the
outcome of this consolidation.
BANK NIFTY – My study
remains same and my key point is 18300. I cannot trade long unless it takes out
18700 which is not going to be easy. Lower side support is at 18300 and we are
close to these levels but can it give this downside easily. Let us see but I am
biased towards bears to be bearish. I have yet to take bearish trade on this.
