09 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Ahead of quarterly numbers, bulls must be on extreme caution.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

09 January 2017: -

On 06 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 255.21 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 165.29 Crs

Nifty has tested 8300 and then took a drop from higher points. It was expected. Well, now the big question is what is going to happen next. Global market is still firm. US market is on extremely higher note. S&P 500 US hit a new all-time high on Friday. A factor which is saving Indian market from a fall is still active. This is the only reason that I was not very active on Index in December month series.

For today’s trading I am expecting a follow up of selling which has started on Friday. If this happens then we can see a possibility of 8200 on Nifty. On higher side 8275 and 8307 is a decisive resistance. I have advised caution on Friday and I am recommending caution even today. It is definitely hard to say for bigger fall as global indices are firm. Upcoming quarterly is expected to be worse from bad and I am expecting impact on Indian market.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – If Nifty has falling form 8300 and came to close just at 8240 then it must be a signal for Nifty too. Technical support for Nifty future is at 8230 which was acting as resistance in rise. Will it break 8230? It is not impossible and I am expecting. Well, so far it is not a call it is my expectation. If it breaks 8230 then I can expect a panic sell off.   

BANK NIFTY January future – It has underperformed Nifty whole week but took a ride on Friday. It has happened to make an equalizer. When Bank Nifty contributes blue-chip stocks has slipped. I am expecting a resistance at 18360. If it crossed 18400 levels then it can see another rise towards 18600-18700. If not then it has to be back to 18000-17800. Second case is more likely.