You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Yesterday was perhaps the dullest
day of recent time. Now we are just one day away from derivative expiry. As of
now, global market took a pause in fall. We are showing better relative
strength from past few days. So will that relative strength convert to bull’s power?
It is interesting to see.
I must tell you the reason for no
weakness in stock market - Market is expecting that upcoming one month will be
important for reforms as PM is taking charge of Finance ministry. Market is
hoping a lot from the father of reforms Dr. Manmohan Singh. This is the prime
reason that even I do not want too short this market immediately as our market
runs on hopes. (Am I optimistic? No, not at all. I am not expecting anything
from this government)
There is one concern which is bigger
than any anther negative cues. It is –
IMD has warned that we may have
weakest south-east monsoon of past 30 years. It is perhaps due to al-nino
effect. Although al nino has resulted below normal monsoon by 17 out of 40
times. Warning is still a warning. Our nation is struggling with ‘inflation’
and poor monsoon can ignite inflation anytime. (One must note that I have
already forecasted by 10-11% inflation by November 2012).
For today,
I
am again repeating for support at 5090. You know from when I am giving this
level. Now almost every one is talking about this support. My study will remain
same. Do not short near to 5100 levels as long as 5090 hold.
On higher side cross
above 5136 (quoted yesterday and it seen one dip from 5134.55) will give us
5156 and then a move towards 5190 levels (not necessarily to be tested) but may
not cross 5195.
Waves are as following: -
Wave 1 – 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60
points (Up)
Wave 2 – 4898.95 to 4847.70 = 051.25
points (Corrective down)
Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5190.20 = 324.50
points (Up)
Wave 4 – 5190.20 to 5041.70 = 148.50
points (Corrective down)
Wave 5 – 5041.70 to 5194.60 = 152.90
points (Up)
(Wave 3) = 2.525* (wave 1) ~
2.618*(wave 1) – This is key to plot this five wave. You cannot plot anywhere
you want. You cannot violate basic rules to plot waves. This is most correct
wave plotting in my view.
More over,
(Wave 5) ~ > (wave 1) – a
required condition
Break and trade below 5080 will
surely push us lower today.
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Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile number – 09893369889
