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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 12
February 2014: -
On 11
February 2014, FII Sold INR 165.40 crs and DII Bought INR 242.37 crs
Nifty has
high at 6082, low at 6053 and closed at 6062 for yesterday. It is itself saying
how tougher the day was. Even high to low difference was not even 30 points. These
kinds of day always leave an edge for confusion. There is no great buying support
from FII side in cash market.
When US
market recovered nearly 70% of their fall, Indian market are struggling to
recover even 38%. US market gained over 1.25% last night while some leading
European indices recovered as big as 2%. Asian market is not that firm but
still higher. Nothing can be better than this as global cue.
Question is
still same can Nifty able to stand tall above 6095 resistance mark? It has
failed in past three days of trades. Major component of NIFTY is Reliance and
that is under pressure due to some political heat. Threat is that Reliance can
see a further dip of nearly 8-10% in coming days due to technical weakness.
Just think, if we see Reliance trading below 800 levels which is very likely now.
From past
two days higher gaps are filled with second half weakness. We may expect
another round of test towards resistance due to strong global cues. I will act
fresh long only if it can able to sustain above 6095 levels.
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Strategy
for Nifty February future – I can still say
that 6115 will act as decisive point for bulls and bear both. It is missing
those technical levels from past three days. SGX NIFTY is giving just 20 points
of higher opening. How many times we saw this failing at top? If this is coming
after almost 200 points of rise in Dow Jones then it is really tough way. I am
still avoiding call to short index as positional but not going long either. We
can think to add and hold long only above 6115. There is no point to think
about big fall either as long as it is above 6030 levels.
S&P
500
(USA) – I was assuming for a move
towards 1809 and then decisive. All goes in favour of bulls and it came at
1819. What a rise! This is the reason that I am saying from past many months
that US has strongest bulls of the world. You cannot get those in India. US
market recovered nearly 70% of their fall which begun from 1850. Now when it is
well above 50 DMA then we can conclude that it will stay above 50 DMA and 1809
will act as support. There should not be attempt to short as long as it holds
1809. Note, there is no sign of even a small pullback. If it has to come then
also it can come only below 1809.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
