You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 24
February 2014: -
On 21
February 2014, FII Bought INR 603.41 crs and DII Sold INR 381.55 crs
Has Friday’s
closing has shocked me? Yes, it has. I was not expecting the retest of 6160 but
it happened. Should I change my view? My answer is no. it is tug-of-war like
situation for bulls and bears. Cross over of 6160 may invite a move towards
6195. I am not saying that it will able to hit 6195 or not but it may take an
attempt.
It has
gained over 1.10% on Friday and India VIX came at 14. We must note that most of
the time fear low comes at 14 historically. Zone of 13-14 may be enough for the
bottom for VIX. My views for nearer resistance and sell off are based on the
patterns emerging on global indices. This situation will be clear in few days’
time.
For Indian
market, it is cement and technology stocks which are on front seat. Those are
still looking stronger to save market. Financial and banking stocks may fail at
higher levels again. I still feel that traders and investors should avoid aggressive
long in this range. We will sooner find this market losing momentum. There might
be stock specific long trade opportunity like Cement stocks but broader market
is not as stronger.
For
today’s trading, if it fail to cross 6160 then I can expect returning of last
Thursday’s levels. Else, I need to plan trading assuming 6195 as also another possibility.
It is definitely not easy to make strategy in bear mode if it goes above 6160. Remember,
market is not going to give easy moves anytime.
After a
very long time, I am saying to exit from your entire delivery holding. Above comment
does not have much sense if market already starts slipping? Keep your eye on
global market too. A brutal “C” wave sell off may come.
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Strategy
for Nifty March future – I am now analyzing
March month contract now. It has closed at 6200 levels with premium of nearly
40 points. I strongly believe that by derivative expiry of Wednesday it will
just have 20-25 points of premium so it can give me some extra advantage on
short side. 6205 is a stiff resistance. Once it maintains levels above 6205
then it can try to catch for 6240 also. So far, I am planning to short the rise
on some intraday sell signal which will either come on failure near 6205 or
from 6240.
S&P
500
(USA) – On Friday’s session it has slipped
from 1846. More importantly it closed at 1836 which is just the day’s low. This
is confirming the importance of 1850-1854 resistance levels. We have very high
possibility for the beginning of crack down this week. It may be decisive and
must come sooner. In my view it should come any day and anytime from now
onwards. Keep stop loss at 1854. Every decisive move has a confirmation point. For
the downside, confirmation point is at 1824 as of now. It is little too far but
odd can occur any moment.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
