You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 04
June 2013: -
On 03 June
2013, FII sold INR 86.67 crs and DII sold INR 71.81 crs.
Yesterday
was second trading session in a row where FII has sold net in cash market. It has
no direction relation with market movement but it is a reflection of market
momentum which is slowing down now. I have said this too many times in past also
that Indian index is under performer. The consequences of this under
performance will be slowing FII momentum. FII has pushed so money in the year
2013 but still indices are at the same levels where it has opened for the year.
I am expecting a stock specific movement for today’s trading. If some
index heavy weight stocks perform then index may come higher too. Yesterday, Infosys
has saved the possible downside breakout.
Technical charts are suggesting for support to emerge between 5930 to
5900 levels. On daily chart, it is a development of H&S pattern with n-line
at 5930-5900 levels. We may get a typical bounce from n-line before decisive
fall. It is difficult to say that this bounce can able to bring Nifty even
close to 5980-6000 levels.
The length of n-line to head is almost 300 points i.e. from 6230 to 5930.
Rough idea suggest that break of this n-line will lead Nifty towards 5930 – 300
which equals to 5630 levels. Is it coming? I will look for technical
confirmation below 5860.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – SGX Nifty June
future is at 5950 which is 8 points down. This is giving a hint for flat
opening. Yesterday’s low will give a trading support at 5925 levels. I
expecting that a negative day will be dull day which on rise it will face
resistance at 5980. So far it is showing that this market is selling on rise. Take
a note that now market is forming lower low. I want to see how Nifty is going
to react at 5925 and 5860 levels.
S&P
500
– I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the
year 2013. I was expecting a soft bounce which came. For intraday, this rebound
came from 1622. The best bounce should also fail above 1660-1664 levels.
Yesterday’s bottom may act as trigger for selling for rest of the month. It
will have trading support at 1633 levels. Take a note that yesterday’s closing
it still just at 20 days exponential moving average. I am waiting for a selling
which gets follow up of selling.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
