You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 19 December 2014: -
On 18 December 2014, FII Sold INR 874.89 crs and DII Bought INR
648.17 crs
Bank Nifty has performed better than Nifty in recovery and
this pattern should continue on the hope of policy easing and many economy
related factors. No emerging market index has recovered like blue chip index of
USA. Indian index were no exception. This kind of relative under performance by
emerging world will continue on the weaker currency against US dollar. Those emerging
market whose currency fail to recover will not see any great recovery. We need
to read Indian rupee in relative term. Think – Crude is near at $55/bbl and
then also Indian rupee almost hit 64 against USD.
When I am reading wave charts, I need to ignore above fact. Somehow,
wave charts are saying that Indian market may have potential to deny above
fundamental levels. Hence, I will not be easily short on rise. Equally, I am
advising readers to be careful.
Based on Elliott wave theory, first target on recovery is at
8215 and next target is at 8295 levels. Right now, it is not the time to point
out for the top of recovery wave ‘b’. I am not in hurry unless a strong sell
emerges. We need to remember than we saw a 900 point of rise without correction
followed by sharp correction of 650 points afterward. Above is not a true
nature of stock price in natural term. Prepare to see something newer on chart.
I want to be on long side.
For today’s trading session, we can again expect positive
opening after massive rise in US market. If it stands above 8200-8220 then we
can see quick fire rise. It may be a short covering rise. Technical support stands at 8100 levels only. Today
is the last trading day of the week. It is difficult to conclude how market
will react after second gap up in a row.
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Strategy for Nifty December
future – I was
expecting a move above 8200 by yesterday itself but it will come by today. I may
not opt to trade if opening quotes itself goes above 8220-8220 levels. We need
to search for new intraday buy signal. Logically, 8260 is also not impossible. I
will search for the opportunity on long side based on short covering.
S&P 500 (USA) – We saw another fantastic rally in
US market last night. Within three days, S&P moved from 1972 to now at
2062. Now it is less than 20 points away from its life time high. Hope, no
readers are on short side. December month turn back to it’s own form. A correction
came and now it is on rise. We need to take cue from momentum. I believe for some
choppy session ahead and then a move towards 2100. If I am right for choppy
sessions ahead then 2050-2035 will not break on down side again.
