Thursday 7 June 2012

China on surprise rate cut

(Reuters) - China's central bank cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday in a surprise move to shore up slackening economic growth, its first rate cut since the depths of the 2008/09 financial crisis.
The new rate of 6.31 percent is effective from June 8, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a brief statement on its website. The PBOC also cut deposit rates by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.
The consensus view of economists had been that the PBOC would refrain from an outright cut to interest rates in 2012 and instead cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) of the country's banks to boost credit creation and deliver money supply growth in line with the 14 percent official target.
"This is very positive for risk appetite and is indicative PBOC are there to support the Chinese economy. If anything I am surprised the moves so far look quite muted," said Michael Sneyd, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas.
"We would expect to see more investors put on risk positions," he said.
The PBOC has cut RRR for the biggest banks by 150 basis points from a record high of 21.5 percent in three moves since November last year, after a two-year tightening campaign to rein in inflation and cool steaming economic growth.
The last change to the borrowing rate was in July 2011 when the 1-year benchmark lending rate was raised by 25 bps to 6.56 percent.
However, China is now on track to deliver its weakest quarter of growth in three years in the second quarter.
The market consensus in a benchmark Reuters poll last month was for annual growth to drop to 7.9 percent, which would mark the sixth straight quarter of softening.
They expected growth for 2012 to slide to 8.2 percent, the smallest expansion in the emerging market giant since 1999 but still above a government target of 7.5 percent.

07 June 2012 : NIFTY : Crossover of 5000 will generate target first @ 5040. If rise sustains then expect 5065 < 5082 too. We caught the falling knife on long trade @ 4770. Why cannot we think to do impossible?


You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

After catching long trade on NIFTY JUNE FUTURE @ 4770, I was not expecting that we will be @ 5000 so soon but yes, it was my mentioned target on higher side. It was informed to our paid subscribers.

I cannot be over confident on my long trade and I like to give proper value to the resistance of 5034 > 5040.
Look at three important points for today’s rise or resistance –


  1. Now cross over of 5000 has generated further extended target at 5034 - 5040. If you remember even on 29th May 2012, I have quoted about 5034 -5040 as a level which was not supposed to cross at that and I was right. I cannot be over confident on my long trade and I like to give proper value to the resistance of 5034 > 5040.
  2. Suppose if we see a cross above 5040 then we can expect a move @ 5065 (which is 200 days moving average).
  3. A further smooth rise can take us up to 5082. It is 61.80% retrenchment of falling C wave from 5279 to 4770.
In short, we have three levels to watch on rise starting from 5040 < 5065 < 5082. My view is cautiously long side.  Crossover of trend changing can give us a hint for 5176 which is 1.618% retrechment of fall against 5040 to 4770 (already marked in the above chart)

What is driving market right now?
First is, in India we have so many extremely (dead) optimistic kind of trader. Yes, people are expecting a CRR cut either by Friday or by 18th June 2012.

Secondly, Expectation of rise in US market. A falling market can make Mr. Barak Obama’s president election campaign tougher. So, you can say that we are on verge on another politically influenced move in Stock Market.

Thirdly, it seems Dr. Manmohan Singh is waking up after seeing GDP @ 5.30%. At least, now he is talking something about economy.

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you. Intraday posts are available on www.viecapital.com only.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views
Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
Mobile number – 09893369889