16 May 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If Nifty can settle below 200 DMA then a dip of 2% is possible for this week but I am not so firm.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 May 2016: -

On 13 May 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 1493.88 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 667.02 Crs

Nifty is hovering near 200 DMA. This makes analysis tougher and I found market little uneasy to trade. Although I believe that most part of this week should be bearish. I need to see market resting below 200 DMA. There is a good support at 7770 levels too. I may get convince if closing goes below 7770 levels. My expectation for the week is around 7650 to 7600. I am already quoting that 7830-7770 is a zone for support. We can take speculative short only.

For today’s session, market may take a start around 7770 and then it can make today’s trading decisive. If Nifty can sustain below 7770 then we can see a move towards 7700 levels. On higher side 7850 will act as zone of stiff resistance. Can it hit 8000 or higher levels? Well, this may not come so easily does not matter how much people wants it.  

I hope it gave you the value of following paragraph which remains the part of my daily analysis.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – 7830-7850-7870 will remains zone of firm resistance. So far, market looks like shorting the top zone before a slide. I may be firm on shorting once it gives me close below 7780 levels. I am expecting a bearish week but things may not be easy till that time. Short the rise for the day to see a sharp slide in second half.  

BANK NIFTY – This index is running here and there around 200 DMA just like Nifty. I believe that key is in BANK NIFTY. If this goes week from 200 DMA then a possible dip in market may hit very easily. The clock is ticking and Index is not moving above 200 DMA convincingly. As long as it is resting below 16800 levels do not opt trading long.