NIFTY FEB MONTH FUT Hourly wave analysis for trade - Why fall came today?

I have already said that 5995 will remains untested for NIFTY FEB Fut. We shorted NIFTY February future @ 5960 and went home. Here is the chart which we used to send paid subscribers every morning.

21 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As expected it got sold at higher levels without any cross above 5980. Now we can expect move towards 5900-5880. Finally USA slipped!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 February 2013: -

On 20 February 2013, FII bought INR 433.59 crs and DII sold INR 591.18 crs.

Equation changes so fast and FII turned as a buyer. Well, I am feeling that FIIs are traditional buyer in Indian market. It must be noted that they are making proper hedging in derivative market. At least one needs to accept that they are also turning cautious on underperforming market.

I have quoted about the resistance of 5980 levels. Nifty hit a high at 5971 and then slipped. It still closed in positive zone. Now technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 5900 marks. I will again say that one should try to look at the support 5878 which will be acting as final support at 5830 only.  

I had already quoted that it will not be easy to move ahead 20 EMA. Unfortunately, 50 SMA was also falling that the same ranges.

I was talking about the possible fall in USA market which was moving higher and higher. We got a DIP yesterday. Remarkable is that we got a shoot up on VIX which moved by 20% higher. Remember, VIX is a fear gauge. It is showing that traders are very nervous after fed minutes.

Apart from that budget session will begin from today. Whatever is going to happen but it seems that bears will get upper hand. It can never be easy if bears tested blood. I have no great expectation from budget. FM has already given many things before budget in past six months. Now, he must be running short of weapons.

Strategy for Nifty February future – Nifty future has again failed near 5995 and this time it has missed the resistance in a big way. Technical charts are suggesting for the return towards 5910-5900 marks. Remember that premium fluctuation is still very high. Yesterday’s high will act as stiff resistance which was at 5975. So, eventually it has created two important resistances, one is at 5975 and other at 5995. These are critical developments. In the down side watch for fall towards 5910 > 5900 > 5888.  

S&P 500 – I got first cheer on my face in the year 2013. I was busy in forecasting for fall since long. It has tested best of my patience. S&P came very close to 20 EMA which is near 1507. What I was saying is more true on VIX, which shoot up by 20%. A break below 1507-1508 will invite bears with invitation letter. With one day of fall, I am back to comfort levels. One more fall will make my studies on profitable side. Can I put the nail at 1530.94 as top? 80% chances is that I should. Remember, I was the first to put nail at 6111 on NIFTY for top.

Do not break your head in thinking why this fall is. Fed minutes or fed hours, I was already sensing this coming but it came little late. Ask Mr. Ben Barnanke what he got with this stimulus? Was he able to improve job market by keeping stock price higher?