You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 12
February 2013: -
On 11
February 2013, FII bought INR 995.83 crs and DII sold INR 940.90 crs.
Shall we
cheer about this money flow or shall we worry about this kind of money flow? Even
after such heavy money flow, Indian market is drifting lower. Global markets
are still trading on firm note. We got more than 210 points of selling on Nifty
and yet not giving even a single sign of recovery.
Shall I
try to find out technical support for recovery? No, I am not trying to do that.
Every support can fail to give support before acting on final one. I want to
see revival on technical indicators first then I will try to find support.
Unfortunately, technical indicators are not giving any sign of revival but true
those are entering in over sold zone.
Is it
sufficient to think about recovery? No, entering in oversold zone cannot be
only criteria. We need to see strength in those. Indian market is in 11th
trading session today after hitting a fresh 52 week high at 6111.80. Core of
the study is that we may expect more weakness before we see any recovery.
If you
look at intraday trading pattern then you can understand that we are getting
25-30 points of technical recovery everyday but all got sold. I can sense only
a consolidation but substantial recovery may not come. I am still feeling that we
are temporarily out of zone to buy stocks. So, one should try to make exit from
long position if one have.
Do
remember, I said many times in whole January month that market is forming top
above 6000. Hope you would have make exit from your long deals much earlier.
Market is
going to focus its eye on upcoming IIP data which will be presented today. You can
expect this data coming at 1%.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – It was a narrower
trading band and we have experienced fluctuating premium. It was definitely
expected. Well, it has never broken 5900 yet. I am still suggesting that one
need to focus on 5900 levels. If it breaks and sustain then you can expect fall
towards 5850 levels. On higher side 5950 to 5960 levels. I said that we need to
see global correction to bet for further fall. Remember that Indian market is
looking perhaps weakest in the world. Even a small global drift can easily give
some hurt to our market. Use higher levels or recovery to build short position.
S&P
500
– Wall Street goes mad with this kind of rise. We have seen a pause last night.
A pause is not sufficient to conclude for profit taking. I am still considering
it for profit taking/ weakness to come. Narrow trading band after wild movement
above 1500 is making a puzzle. Charts are demanding for technical correction. Threshold
for fall is coming higher. Now it seems that even the break 1505 will result a
move towards 1495 and then steep fall cannot ruled out. Technical resistance
will be at 1520.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
