30 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Outlook remains unchanged even on new trading month. Wave theory is suggesting for a move to bring it near to 7130 and then a decisive breakdown may come in few days.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 May 2014: -

On 29 May 2014, FII Sold INR 522.90 crs and DII Bought INR 195.20 crs

I was expecting this sell off to come on expiry day and it went as the road map suggested. I put some marking for Elliott wave on the chart and it is suggesting that story is not over yet. Somehow, Nifty will go near 7130 before turning decisive. My given chart is an hourly chart. Pictures were little unclear on Daily chart.

Hourly chart has some sense of H&S pattern too. It is suggesting that Nifty can go as low as 7000 to 6900 levels. Today is the first day of new month series. Traders may turn nervous sooner. I can still see that traders are picking odd small cap and dangerous mid cap stocks which is definitely not a good sign.

According to Elliott wave theory on hourly chart, Nifty is in trending wave ‘C’ which is a part of corrective full wave. So we are in wave ‘C’ from 7504 and we have already travelled a distance of nearly 200 points. Logically end point of wave ‘A’ need to be broken. End point of wave ‘A’ is at 7130. This is prime reason that I try to be reserve from buying on rise although stock specific moves are coming to catch for good.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7200 and then at 7130 levels. If it stays below 7220 then we can expect this fall to continue. On higher side it will face resistance at 7300 levels now. I prefer to short this market on rise only. We still have some positional shorts in our pocket.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – It has key support at 7250 levels now which is on striking distance. Downside will intensify if it will spend time below 7250 levels. On higher side it will face resistance in the zone of 7300 to 7320 levels. Can we see levels of 7150 too in this wave? At least I am expecting this to happen from past few days of trades.

S&P 500 (USA) – So far, journey remains up for US market. Either one use Tom Demark indicators or Fibonacci retrenchment and Fibonacci curve, all were hinting from April month that Top should come as 19XX. Now, it can be either 1903 or 1930, it hardly matters. Core of study is that we are either at the top or at the counting distance from top. I can still say that below 1900 we can get confirmation of decisive dip. Top should come on May month and today is last trading day.  

29 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Derivative expiry is coming on decisive day on chart. Break below 7300 will give us 7260 levels. Metal stocks may be on higher side of activity and mid cap + small cap on litmus test.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 May 2014: -

On 28 May 2014, FII Sold INR 286.54 crs and DII Sold INR 33.40 crs

We saw another dull day in the last trading session. We have derivative expiry today. Current pattern on daily to hourly charts are not very encouraging for bulls. Nifty has first support at 7300 but the break of 7300 will give us levels near 7260. You can see that conclude is almost same as yesterday.

According to Elliott wave theory on hourly chart, Nifty is in trending wave ‘C’ which is a part of corrective full wave. So we are in wave ‘C’ from 7504 and we have already travelled a distance of nearly 200 points. Logically end point of wave ‘A’ need to be broken. End point of wave ‘A’ is at 7130. This is prime reason that I try to be reserve from buying on rise although stock specific moves are coming to catch for good.

I still like to issue warning from buying mid cap and small cap stocks as those are just forming trap. We have derivative expiry today and it will be interesting to see the moves on some stock which moved rapidly over past few trading sessions. If this is going to be even short term top then also it can hurt investors very badly.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7300 and then at 7260 levels. If it stays below 7325 then we can expect the re-test of yesterday’s low near 7260. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7400+ levels. I just believe on thing – sell the rise and sell the weakness.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – It has key support at 7300 levels which is still 50 points away. On higher side, Nifty June future will face resistance at 7360-7380 levels. I will be comfortable in shorting below 7280. Till that time, it will be speculative short call on rise. Note that we have derivative expiry today hence be cautious. We may see some trimming premium on future value of stocks and indices.

S&P 500 (USA) – A day after a new all-time high was not so encouraging. It spends the day on dull note but closed lower. I still believe that this top should not be bought. We are in last two days of May month. This is going to decide the fate of US market for June month. Chances are very high that we will see something going in favour of bears by tonight or tomorrow night. I want to see the break of 1900 first. 

28 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We have derivative expiry tomorrow. Indices and stocks futures may give up its premium today. Be cautious from buying. We may again see dip from any intraday high point.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 May 2014: -

On 27 May 2014, FII Sold INR 202.61 crs and DII Sold INR 95.63 crs

It was expected choppy trading session yesterday. I feel that profit taking is not over yet. We have intermediate support at 7269 levels. As long as it holds 7269 we can see some pause in the market this is low point of Monday’s trading when we got sharp selloff in intraday session.

According to Elliott wave theory on hourly chart, Nifty is in trending wave ‘C’ which is a part of corrective full wave. So we are in wave ‘C’ from 7504 and we have already travelled a distance of nearly 200 points. Logically end point of wave ‘A’ need to be broken. End point of wave ‘A’ is at 7130. This is prime reason that I try to be reserve from buying on rise although stock specific moves are coming to catch for good.

When it comes to buy I found that market message is buying for mid cap and small cap stocks. I always ignore this message of market. Rally in stocks having value less than INR 30 are for retailers temptation. This is the reason that many stocks too sharp jump in past few days which fall in this criteria. If one is buying this kind of stocks then one must open his eyes for 24 hours. Exit before those start falling.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7280 and then at 7260 levels. If it starts trading below 7325 then we can expect the re-test of yesterday’s low near 7260. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7400+ levels. I just believe on thing – sell the rise and sell the weakness.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – It has key support at 7280 levels which is still 50 points away. On higher side, Nifty June future will face resistance at 7360-7380 levels. I will be comfortable in shorting below 7280. Till that time, it will be speculative short call on rise. Note that we have derivative expiry tomorrow hence be cautious.

S&P 500 (USA) – It took expected turn and closed on high point of the day. Closing at high point of the day is always bullish especially when it closes with new all-time high.  Long back, I was expecting this to give us an all-time high in the zone of 19XX. It took long consolidation to enter in this range but rises now goes beyond limit of comforts. As long as it is above 1900 there cannot be sense of profit taking either. I still say, be on side line and wait for good opportunity. Do not be traditionally bullish.   

27 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 7563.50 and 7504 will act as double top with second top lower. Key support will be only at 7130 which are still more than 200 points away. Massive volatility is expected till expiry day and it may be landslide dip.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 May 2014: -

On 26 May 2014, FII Sold INR 84.13 crs and DII Sold INR 208.39 crs

I have quoted this yesterday itself during market hours before fall begun, “Small cap and mid cap indices are under performing NIFTY. It may be a signal for double top on daily chart with second top coming lower. I can conclude above if we see closing goes without fresh intraday high. OR - more over- a weak hourly close.” Based on this we took short on Nifty Future from 7490 levels itself which gave a quicker than expect fall of 200 big points.

According to Elliott wave theory, I have already said that we are in progression of wave ‘B’ and a top is about to come. Note that we are dealing on hourly chart right now. We got end point of corrective ‘B’ wave at 7504. This is excellent top as it has words of confirmation of double top.

Above is not the only event for yesterday. By close, Nifty closed with small negative but small cap index slipped by 3% and mid cap index slipped by 2%. I have already warned from buying stocks of such indices. I gave an example – HFCL- which was on 10% up circuit yesterday finally closed in red at 12.70 but low was 11.60. Where were circuit? It was at 14. Just count in percentage term and feel the heat. Do not burn your money in this kind of stock. If you are burning then no one can help you.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7325 and then at 7290 levels. If it starts trading below 7325 then we can expect the re-test of yesterday’s low near 7260. On higher side, it will face resistance at 7400+ levels. I just believe on thing – sell the rise and sell the weakness. We may get both today as yesterday.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I was shocked with yesterday’s sell off but I was expecting this. Only thing is that it came little sooner. Technical charts are suggesting that if it starts trading below 7310 then we can expect 7260 levels. I can warn that charts may issue a signal for the move towards 7100 near expiry days. Note that we are just two trading sessions away from derivative expiry.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is again back to 1900 levels. This is little uneasy right now but giving all possible sign of top formation. Still I suggest that one should stop out above 1903 and prefer to wait for weakness. We cannot expect any good extension above 1903 even after bullish mode. Based on chart, being bullish is also not making sense even after new all-time high. From past many months, S&P formed new all-time high but fail to give unidirectional move. Be on side line and wait for opportunity to short. 

26 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Rise is likely to continue as long as it holds above 7300 levels. Crucial bull’s threshold is at 7400. Be cautious at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 May 2014: -

On 23 May 2014, FII Bought INR 416.80 crs and DII Bought INR 135.50 crs

Once again small cap index gained over more than 2.50% and mid cap index gained over more than 2%. This is euphoric moves. Fact is that mid cap and small cap index moved in post poll result days. As long as buying continues in mid cap and small cap index, it is tougher to say for any possible profit taking. History suggests that last ride always goes on mid cap and small cap index lead by retail investors picking. This kind of buying generally comes to trap last bulls.

According to Elliott wave theory, we are in the process of formation of wave ‘B’. It could have given top of wave ‘B’ either at 7347 which failed or may give near to 7398 which is likely possibility. So minimum of 30 points more may come on Nifty. It is also a fact that face is still on for new all-time for Nifty as long as it is in progress of wave ‘B’. I must be clear that we need indication to find the end point of wave ‘B’. Suppose if it crosses 7400 marks then this wave ‘B’ will have different nature than what I am expecting. Hence, I am not in hurry to conclude. I had few shorts which I booked on Friday when Nifty was at 7325.  

I have reasons to wait before thinking to short. Normal logic is that market may enjoy a positive session as today is swearing in ceremony of our new Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi. I strongly advise caution at higher levels specially if it comes at 7398 levels.

For today’s trading technical support will be at 7325 and then at 7290 levels. On higher side, we may see only one stiff resistance which is at 7400 levels. If it manages to stay above 7400 then it get wild up side.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I stopped out from Nifty future at 7350 only with small loss. I feel that it was good to be stopped out. Now, SGX Nifty is giving a hint for opening at 7425 levels. This is big and may go bigger. I prefer to ignore trading for today’s session and chances are high to be trapped. I can prefer to make stock specific deals only. So far, direction is up for Nifty.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is again back to 1900 levels. This is little uneasy right now but giving all possible sign of top formation. Still I suggest that one should stop out above 1903 and prefer to wait for weakness. We cannot expect any good extension above 1903 even after bullish mode. Based on chart, being bullish is also not making sense even after new all-time high. From past many months, S&P formed new all-time high but fail to give unidirectional move. Be on side line and wait for opportunity to short. 

23 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Consolidation is still expected to continue. Technical resistance will be at 7325 – 7350 levels. Can we see some decisive mood on final day of the week?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 May 2014: -

On 22 May 2014, FII Sold INR 294.99 crs and DII Bought INR 203.07 crs

Majority of action has shifted to mid-cap and small cap indices. CNX Small cap index has seen a gain of 3% yesterday and mid- cap index shoot up by 1.75%. These are not the space where I like to deal much. This may be a hint that retail investors are traditionally hitting market to buy the top. Still, participation is not too big to conclude so soon.

I have constantly focused on resistance at 7325 to 7350. We saw intraday dip again from those points. Most of the time this week, we saw higher opening – rise in first half and then profit taking in second half. It breaks the continuity of the chart. Market is still not in the mood to take decisive direction. This is a zone of consolidation and it is tougher to conclude trading direction.

On higher side, Nifty has resistance at 7325. The best bullish way that market can opt is that if it correct from current levels and rebound from 50% support zone. Remember, this has happened when it rebounded from 6638 levels. At that time, 50% support was at 6640. Market is likely to take direction near upcoming union budget and its announcement. Above chart is explaining the ‘corrective’ the wave down.

For today’s trading also technical support will be at 7240 and then at 7200 levels. On higher side, we may see opening near 7300 but tougher challenge will come at 7325 to 7350. It is the final trading day of the week so we may see some direction in second half only.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – It has generated a pity odd pattern. It is taking a gap up, rise and then profit taking in second half. This kind of pattern generally gives a signal for bears command but strong sell signal is still missing on chart. SGX Nifty is hinting for start at 7320 again which is odd 20 points higher. Do not buy at top, prefer to ignore Nifty trading for first half.  

S&P 500 (USA) – I had a view yesterday that sell off should begin but that did not happened. S&P scaled a high at 1896 and closed at 1892. It is likely to complete right shoulder. Now also, I believe that I should keep view bearish as long as it is below 1903. It has shocked me little with the strength. Today will be last trading day of the week and we may some decisive movement. One thing is for sure, if it takes out 1900-1903, I will stop out.      

22 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Yesterday’s low was near to 38% support band of the rally. Break below 7200 on Nifty will give us a dip towards 7130-7100 levels. On higher side, new up move will open only above 7350.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 May 2014: -

On 21 May 2014, FII Sold INR 266.22 crs and DII Sold INR 439.03 crs

It was another dull close on daily chart even after roller coaster ride during intraday session. It saved the fall at 38% support of recent rally. If money is a measure then FII sold in cash market from past two trading sessions in a row. Logically, real test for the support will come at 50% mark of the rally. In that way, Nifty has supports in this way, 7130-low of event day, 7100-mid-point of rally and 7080 – pre-event low. So the range of 7130 to 7080 will be real support and decisive support. In simple words, mid to long term direction will be up as long as we hold above 7080.

On higher side, Nifty has resistance at 7325. The best bullish way that market can opt is that if it correct from current levels and rebound from 50% support zone. Remember, this has happened when it rebounded from 6638 levels. At that time, 50% support was at 6640. Market is likely to take direction near upcoming union budget and its announcement.

For today’s trading support will be at 7210-7200 levels. Resistance on higher side will be at 7290 and 7325 levels. We may see initial impulses due to higher close in US market. Follow up trades may go lower. Traditionally, it seems that small investors are jumping to buy odd mid cap stocks. I saw activity in stocks like, HFCL again. I am again issuing strong word of caution as these buys will give you nothing.   

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Strategy for Nifty May future – Yesterday’s bounce from low has suggested that there was buying near support. This forces me to believe that we may see support around the corner near 7240 levels. On better side, shorting will give good deals below 7230 levels. On higher side, Nifty future will have resistance at 7350. So, this 100 points range will give me a decisive opportunity. I give a favour to bears as I am expecting a move towards 7100 before a fresh rebound.

S&P 500 (USA) – Is this bounce unexpected? Not entirely. On daily chat, it came to for a right shoulder. As long as it is below 1903, I will maintain bearish view only. Even for today’s session, we may see trades near 1892 before fall. S&P 500 knocked 50 DMA too many times in past few days. It can break it any day anytime. Risk reward ratio suggests that it may favour bears only as long as it is below 1903. We saw 1880+ on 7^th March 2014 and it’s more than 2.50 months so far that we are on same levels.     

21 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still feel that consolidation will continue for now. Technical support will be at 7240 and resistance will be at 7325. Be cautious from long position on newer momentum stocks.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 May 2014: -

On 20 May 2014, FII Sold INR 104.53 crs and DII Sold INR 656.83 crs

I was expecting closing to go on dead flat note. It goes in same way but actions continue in PSU stocks. It is not easy to buy those stocks either. We saw some cooling off activity in blue chip Reliance. Over all, this is still a consolidating index with some hectic stock specific activity. It is important to note that volatility increases in both direction. Rise and fall used to come in rapid way. 

Technical charts are still repeating same thing. Nifty has stiff resistance at 7325 levels. We are not at the levels where bulls or bears can rule in any direction. As long as Nifty holds 7130 to 7080 it opens strong scope for newer all-time high in coming month. Confusion of long term direction and short term direction will make things odd.

For today’s trading support will be at 7240 levels. Once again expected range can be 7240 to 7325. I have no expectation for this range to break. Intraday traders should reduce their activity on index and try to focus on momentum stocks but even those are not easy to deal. I am issuing word of caution. We may prepare our self for odd moves.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – We may get another dead flat opening and there is no big expectation from intraday session too. Technical resistance will be at 7350 levels while support will be at 7260 levels. If it slips below 7260 then only bears will get some edge to trade. Will it come? Let us see.

S&P 500 (USA) – In my view, this is the desired crack which market was looking for this week. It closed with loss of 12 points and now the next crucial level to breach will be 1860. It may break 1860 either by today or by tomorrow. It is looking to satisfy ‘Sell in May and go away’. S&P is very likely to face resistance in the zone of 1880 to 1885 in every rise. I have a strong believe that this selling will take S&P towards 1810-1800 levels.   

20 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Consolidate likely to continue. Technical resistance will be at 7325 and support in the range of 7130 to 7080. Do not jump at higher levels. It may be dull day after higher opening.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 May 2014: -

On 19 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1350.04 crs and DII Sold INR 348.48 crs

Event day low is always important if it forced market to move in wild range of 5-6% or more. So, the low of 16^th May 2014 will act as good trading support. This low point is 7130. I still believe that as long as 7130 holds it will continue to intact higher and the race for new all-time high is still on.

There is a strong possibility of consolidation before next up move. In this process we may go near to 7130 but finally it may save. I am expecting this based on history. History suggests that trend which established before poll is expected to continue. In order to add caution I am avoiding higher levels to buy as nearest support of 7130 it almost 130 points away from here and it is substantial to make damage.

Market will prepare its mood for upcoming Union Budget. We saw good rise in PSU stocks in past trading sessions. It was much bigger rise in PSU stock which we have never seen in past many years. We heard that BJP is very likely to go with FDI in retail which is against the promise in their manifesto. It does not matter who is ruling party but for economic policies all are same. What they oppose as opposition, they support same when comes to rule government.  

It may be another day of consolidation. Nifty may open near 7300 and then it will again generate technical resistance at 7325 levels. We may not get clear direction in the zone of 7325 to 7130 levels as Nifty may consolidate in this area.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is hinting for opening near 7300. If this happens then we may not have further scope for good rise. It can bounce to come near 7330 at the max. In the down side, Nifty can get support at 7260 and 7220. I am expecting consolidation to continue for today also.

S&P 500 (USA) – It came on dot at 1885 again. These are weak bounce which usually comes in consolidation period. I still below that S&P 500 will break 1860 by this week and it will take a negative direction. One must avoid higher levels for buying activity. In fact, it is not a bad idea to add short at this kind of levels. On long term chart, it is still near to the top. Break below 1860 will drive toward rapid 1810 to 1800 as next target.  

19 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Even is over but bullish hangover will continue with consolidation. Technical resistance will be at 7325 and support in the range of 7130 to 7080. Do not jump at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 May 2014: -

On 15 May 2014, FII Bought INR 3634.82 crs and DII Sold INR 349.32 crs

Election is over, NDA got clear mandate with flagship of Mr. Narendra Modi. So, we can say that wants of market has fulfilled. From past few days, I was mentioning few levels as probable top and those were quoted as follow -

“Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878.” I quoted those as Fibonacci projection.  

Eventually, Nifty formed a blow up top at 7563.50 which was very close to the quoted 7569 levels. This is fine so far and things went as per the road map we have suggested last week. This is new week and big event is over. Traders must try to forget what has happened and take things are newer way. It is for sure that optimism may rule for few more days. I can strongly as that as long as 7080 holds, this market will always in race to form more new high although it will not so easy.

SGX Nifty is hinting for higher opening which may be due to over reaction in the last trading session in last hour. 7325 will act as stiff resistance and do not jump on higher levels to buy. Take stock specific deals. Technical support will be at 7130 and 7080 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is hinting for opening at 7320. If this happens then we may not have further scope for good rise. I was expecting an optimism bounce to come near 7350. Market mood will remain positive but it deserves a consolidation index. This will push us to a trading day where index may not move in predictable mood and it may go choppy after higher opening. Especially when it open near 7320.

S&P 500 (USA) – Somehow, it is saving 50 DMA support so far. Still, scope of saving this 50 DMA is not so bright. Sooner or later, it may break levels of 1860 with full force and generate a strong bearish bar. We have a possibility of such breakdown this week. Hence, opt to short S&P 500 in any rise. 1885 and 1903 level will act as still resistance. Close below 1860 will open scope for 1800. I just prefer to accumulate few short on rise above 1880 itself. 

16 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Decision day of Indian economy finally came. Keep your figure crosses and pray for result as we expected. If this happens in market favour then we may have another massive up leg. Do not make technical levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 May 2014: -

On 15 May 2014, FII Bought INR 934.94 crs and DII Sold INR 385.40 crs

My first sentence to light hearted trader is – ‘Why don’t you take a holiday today?’ Have few cups of coffee and snacks and then just watch television. 

We have done a lot in past 400 points of rally. So, here is big ‘decision day’ which we are waiting from past many months. Finally calendar showing for 16^th may 2014.

We have done enough with opinion poll, exit poll and many calculations. Market grows higher levels based on optimism over a point. That point is, ‘India is going to get a stable and decision making government headed by a strong Mr. Narendra Modi’ who will pull us from policy paralysis’. This one sentence will play major role for rest of this year.

Exit poll - Can it go wrong like 2004 and 2009?

Probably not. Based on sample collection, the difference between vote shares of UPA vs NDA is wider than 10%. I am inducing all survey agencies.

In the year 2004, I think, it was 35% for NDA and 34% for UPA. So, even small shift could have given push to the projection. This time almost all survey agencies are giving a hint that NDA vote shares may be bigger than 45% and it has a distance of 10% from closest rival. So, number seats will not differ much.

 I still stand with my point that –

• ·         BJP will end tally at 254 at least and NDA can come above 286 seats.
• ·         Congress will limit at 66 seats while UPA end its show with lesser than 100 seats.
• ·        Third largest party will be trinamool congress while Delhi show stopper AAP will disappoint people with nominal 3-5 seats.

There is nothing to apply technical today. I bought few Nifty options yesterday with my calculated risk. I gave us rest of my stock futures and Nifty future to protect my capital. I choose 7400 Nifty call to play. I still believe that poll result cannot go much beyond projections. If anything goes for surprises then it will be only positive surprises. If anything goes wrong then it will reflect on Monday.

I am just repeating old Fibonacci levels. This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878. Please refer to the chart.

For today’s trading, we have support at 7080 and 7050. On higher side, we have meaningful resistance at 7175 and then only at 7200 levels. Trading may turn wild today. As said a sentence when Nifty was near 6700 that Gaps and surprises used to come in the direction of primary trend. If primary trend is up then gap will up. Right now, primary trend is up so gap should be up.

Let us take alter view too. What will say that rally got broken? A simple 5% dip from top will say that rally got broken. No more mathematics.

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Strategy for Nifty May future – I bought 7400 Nifty call option after I gained over 450 point on my past holding on Nifty future. I am not going to deal today at any cost. I just need to control my temptation. I still hope that I am right on my view with poll analysis. Read on my home if you missed. After poll result we may have a possibility of 7800-8000 Nifty to visit. When will I short this market? Sooner, very sooner. Just wait patiently. Right now I am saying that possibility of 6-8-10% rise more. After than we have bright chance of hitting 10% fall from top. So do not jump to buy on rise. I will just cut few of my delivery holding on rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – Nothing could be more perfect than this. I gave the target of 1865-1860 and it hit a low near 1860 before closing little higher from low. This is confirming that May month sell off. I hope that you would not be a trap bull who bought 1900+ top. So, what is next? Now if it breaks 1860 and manages few closes then we can hope for 1810-1800 as next stop for S&P. Consensus dip may be deeper if comes. Use every pullback to just short this index. 

15 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will it consolidate more or will it add more long on ‘Optimism’? Does not matter but do prefer to hold only lighter positions for overnight. If possible, just stay out. Prepare for either up circuit or down circuit tomorrow in extreme case.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 May 2014: -

On 14 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1520.08 crs and DII Sold INR 410.01 crs

I have already quoted for 7080 as technical support. We saw a lot on dot at 7080 and then a small rebound but it was over all a day for consolidation. Even for today’s trading session, this consolidation may continue. I still believe that market will offer good support at 7080 and 7050 for Nifty.

Optimism over poll result before 16^th May is still on. We need to note that FIIs are more bullish nearer to poll result. Time has come. I will surely go with light position over night. Remember, this kind of event is always a gamble for trading. No matter how sure you are for the outcome for result. I enjoyed pre-poll result rally and I will go on side line.

We may have a chance of missing good percentage movement of market but I may like to give up. I still believe for 254 for BJP but it has nothing to do with my trading decision. A positive factor is that BJD may come out to join NDA. I will light on market but I will not short this market in any case.

Light heart traders must watch poll result on his TV set. Take trading holiday and be safe. For today’s trading session we may move higher again as Optimism may go on its peak again. Wave theory is still supporting market.

How does wave looks like? This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878. Please refer to the chart.

For today’s trading, we have support at 7080 and 7050. On higher side, we have meaningful resistance at 7175 and then only at 7200 levels. Trading may turn dull today.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It will open flat to positive but study remains same like yesterday. It will get support at 7100 levels. If it breaks 7100 then exit long trades on Nifty future for the day. On higher side, I expect a retest of 7200 levels. I have long which I will give up depending on opening. One thing is for sure, we will see volatility in small ranges of nearly 100 points. It can easily make me nervous. I will not make many deals today.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have already quoted that 1902+ may emerge as long term stop before “May month sell off”. Yesterday S&P lost 8 points. It is just a confirmation before lower levels. Shorting US indices may not be bad idea now. It has scope to give target as 2% dip from this point. It means that it is going to test 1865-1860 levels. Further break will give us levels like 1810-1800 in coming weeks. US market may get nasty sell off before weekend. Just add short on any rise and keep stop loss at 1903.

14 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may be a dead session before poll result day. Expect volatility in 100 points range but not easily tradable. I will confident to buy if it takes out 7175 levels else I will be silent.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 May 2014: -

On 13 May 2014, FII Bought INR 2026.23 crs and DII Sold INR 649.42 crs

Nifty hit a new all-time high at 7172.35. It was third big day in a row. Do not still think about shorting. I am not betting anything for 16^th May yet as we have two more trading session before that. As per Fibonacci series and Elliott wave analysis, we still have upside target either at 7325 or at 7568. ‘Optimism’ rally always drive a possibility of contra trade direction. In my view, till 15^th May, market has nothing to play for contra.

I have quoted 254 for BJP on Friday and I have explained in my weekend article with complete details. If I am right then NDA will surely come with comfortable majority. If I have to update my projected numbers then it will go in favour of NDA to large extent. Believe me BJP number will be higher than 254. I will not surprise if it came near to 272. This is perhaps my sentiment. So, mathematical study is still justifying for 254. I heard that even ‘satta’ bazzar is also stopping at 254.

It should be a bigger duty to protect capital with a view that if things goes wrong. Well, those can be applied tomorrow. Before that, what is the possibility of missing majority for NDA? Remember, I have quoted only for 286 and even smaller margin can switch thing figure. I will take caution call tomorrow, not today.

Charts are still going with full possibility for up move on 16^th May 2014. Final quote is, if NDA goes in the zone of 300-320+ (which is not impossible), then you can expect fastest 1000 points travel for Nifty. Yes, we may need to bet for even 7800-8000. This rally will at least continue till 25 May 2014.

How does wave looks like? This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878. Please refer to the chart.

For today’s trading, we have support at 7080 and 7050. On higher side, we have meaningful resistance at 7175 and then only at 7200 levels. Trading may turn dull today.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It will get support at 7100 levels. If it breaks 7100 then exit long trades on Nifty future for the day. On higher side, I expect a retest of 7200 levels. I have long which I will give up depending on opening. One thing is for sure, we will see volatility in small ranges of nearly 100 points. It can easily make me nervous. I will not make many deals today.

S&P 500 (USA) – Since early May, I said for a new life time high. It gave 1902.17 yesterday. Is it a bull run? May be not, charts are just satisfying itself only. Now, one should stop adding long or trading long. This may emerge as long term top. So, finally we have a possibility of “May month sell off” which may begin in second half of the month. Technical support is at 1867 levels which is 50 DMA. At this point of time, I am off all trades and strongly winding up all long. Wait for shorting opportunity. What can be first possible target? Definitely 50 DMA which is 1867.  

13 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All set to another high fly start after exit poll. Prepare to see 7200 marks in best case. Technical support is now at 6950 levels. I just prefer to hold my long trades rather than adding more at high.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 May 2014: -

On 12 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1217.95 crs and DII Bought INR 92.56 crs

It was excellent Monday when Nifty closed above 7000 marks. It took almost 6.50 years to move from 6000 first time to 7000 first time. Nifty has crossed 6000 marks for the first time in December 2007. Now, after market hours, exit poll result came per expectation. Almost everyone is showing a clear majority for NDA.

I have quoted 254 for BJP on Friday and I have explained in my weekend article with complete details. If I am right then NDA will surely come with comfortable majority. If I have to update my projected numbers then it will go in favour of NDA to large extent. Believe me BJP number will be higher than 254. I will not surprise if it came near to 272. This is perhaps my sentiment. So, mathematical study is still justifying for 254.

I have long from 6685 which I am not ready to give up. We will see another mammoth gap up today. We may have some profit taking but I have no reservations from taking risk for 16^th May 2014. We saw diesel price hike after poll ended. So, good news for market is just beginning.

What can you expect for 16^th May 2016? Well, history has yet to make. When I projected 254 seats for BJP, I have not given any account for NaMo wave. If this wave is really there then number for NDA can be far bigger than 300. Well, we cannot count emotions on Mathematics formula or survey.

Final quote is, if NDA goes in the zone of 300-320+ (which is not impossible), then you can expect fastest 1000 points travel for Nifty. Yes, we may need to bet for even 7800-8000. This rally will at least continue till 25 May 2014. Now, this is not the time to be contrarian trader who can bet for bears. One will simply bleed if one does.

How does wave looks like? This is fifth wave extension. This generally comes with extremely rapid pace. Have a look, if we compare this to third wave. 100% @ 7325, 127.20% @ 7569, 161.80% 7878

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – We are going to see another higher opening. There is no better buy signal than this kind of back to back extremely higher high at new all-time high. Just count how many high I typed. I am expecting another stronger start. It can be as bigger as 100 points. Technical charts are just saying buy and hold. I am just holding my one stop long at 6685 and not doing any further experiment.

S&P 500 (USA) – I still protect myself using 50 DMA support. When it was looking like to break, bulls came and bring it very close to all-time high. So, a new all-time high is still not out of race. Today will be a day when it can make its history.  I have quoted for this rise from the bounce of 1803. Now what is coming next? Let it go higher and top will emerge at 1915 to 1930 levels before ‘May or summer sell off begin’. I am expecting this to happen sooner, may be this week itself. 

12 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A mammoth rise came on Friday to push bears back. We have good chance to see a new all-time again on Nifty. Will you hold long just before exit poll which will come today at 5 pm?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 May 2014: -

On 09 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1278.68 crs and DII Sold INR 75.30 crs

Finally, after 50% retrenchment we saw a rebound which comes with stronger than expected intensity. I nearly gained over 200 points but I still prefer to hold. I have already explained last week that near to poll result date we will see ‘a rally of optimism’. What has happened on Friday was a part of it. Cross above 6880 on Nifty will drive it higher and higher. Do not try to be extra brave to short.

I have quoted 254 for BJP on Friday and I have explained in my weekend article with complete details. If I am right then NDA will surely come with comfortable majority. This can push market higher towards 7000 marks. Today’s trading session will also go with optimism. Technical charts are suggesting that Nifty can hit in the zone of 6950 to 7000 marks if it stay above 6880.

It does not matter if this happens today or tomorrow but scope is surely open. Best thing that market can do now is that it will move above 6880 and force each short to cover in panic. If this happens then rally could be larger and quicker. Rally based on ‘Optimism’ should continue until either it see end of optimism or after desired final result on event.

Technical charts are still suggesting for crucial support at 6830 to 6800 levels. On higher side, it needs to sustain above 6880 to register further gain which can be very impressive. If it breaks 6800 on lower side then I will be worried a little. So far, it looks like it will break 6880 on higher side and try to come in the striking range of 7000 levels.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is showing for positive start even after massive gain on Friday. Positive momentum is expected to continue. I hope that it will cross another crucial threshold which is at 6925. Cross over of 6925 will add 50-75 points on higher side before exit poll hit this evening. In worse case, it will be cautiously silent before event but such chance is less to happen. Even if this happens then also it will give up partly from higher levels only.

S&P 500 (USA) – Even on Friday I have quoted for the support at 50 DMA. We saw intraday low exactly at 1867 which was in striking distance from 50 DMA which is at 1865. We saw good rebound in second half, this drive a fact that bulls are still trying. Now, all-time high is at 1899 and 50 DMA is at 1865. Difference is just 2% now. It is showing the time based consolidation. Before turning weak we may have some steam left for bulls. It may try to break on higher side before going lower. My conviction is turning less for new all-time high now. Break below 50 DMA will invite bears to hit for “May month sell off”. 

Possible Outcome of general election 2014 – BJP may go near or at 254 seats and INC to limit at 66 seats. NDA to go at 286+ and UPA to go below 100 seats very easily.

I have already quoted for 254 seats for BJP on 09^th May 2014 and bet on ‘Rally in stock price based on Optimism’. This article is about rest of my political conclusion.

This is perhaps most intense general election which I am watching in my life time. We saw war of words, more than those extreme personal attacks. I think that no one is unbiased to analyse. I saw people going brutal if someone refuses to accept their views.  Example – If someone comments against Mr. Narendra Modi, then few of their friends “unfollow” him on twitter or facebook or may be even stopped talking to him or her. In some cases, I have noticed stronger criticism which went beyond limits. This has happened in case of political leaders too.  This election is of ‘most emotional war’ of recent decades. Tolerance limits has reduced substantially in our modern society.

So, dear friends, excuse me if my words go against your views. I am very sorry in advance if my views hurt your political views. Surely, this article may hurt some part of readers. Take it just as a study and my duty.

I try my best to be on side-line when I was analysing data. This given possible outcome is the outcome of my mathematical research.

 I gave weightage to survey agencies based on their total number of sample and I gave higher weightage to those who gave data nearest to poll dates. It has nothing to with NaMo wave or RaGa wave. I have not watched any news channel from past more than two months and focus completely on data analysis. Time to time, I am aware about all those remarks and comments which were given by politicians to impress voters in any mean including policy making talks.

Survey agencies whose data has helped me a lot in my studies are as follow –

Times now, Cvoter, ABP News, Nielsen, The week, Hansa Research, CNN-IBN, The Hindu, CSDS, India Today, Lokniti and NDTV.

Few factors which are trend decider for current election.

1.       Series of scams - UPA is close to pay price for Series of scams

2.       Policy Paralysis - Policy paralysis makes corporate angry and hence employees of private sectors

3.       Social Media - This is most important – higher number tech savvy youth  has voted first time who are surely has great influence from internet and social media

4.       Media - Can we say that Media remains fair through out there election and related reporting? Perhaps not.

5.       Politics of packaging – You all know what I am talking about. Rallies were planned like a corporate event. Event managers were very active. In such cases, number of people in crowd cannot represent true number of voters.

Do you remember a name “Ajit Sarkar”? He used to keep few red towels in some main location of his constituency with a message that give one rupee coin if you want to support me. This was not done to collect election expenses. This was done by him to know true number of voters.  Democracy in India moved so far from these ideological approaches.

Let us come to conclusion fast,

a.       My studies have given 254 seats for BJP on standalone basis. Number of seat will reach to 286 for current NDA. I am saying current NDA as I strongly believe that few more parties will come to join NDA in post result days.

b.      Congress can end up near to 66 seats only. I am not happy with this as the role of opposition in democracy is very important. If this really happen then democracy will lose its meaning in term of opposition as it will be perhaps weakest and less united opposition of past 25 years.

c.       AITC will emerge as third largest party followed by AIADMK. If my forecast goes wrong and NDA misses few seats then Mamta Banargee and Jayalalita will be deciding force of next government.

d.      I will surprise you most with this – Rahul Gandhi might win with smaller margin or may fail to save Ameti seat. At least, it will not be easy win for him. I gave 5 seats to INC in UP which may go to 4 if he loose from Ameti. Surely, such predictions are not easy to make. Even a smaller swing can change the result.

Few prime factors where poll campaign goes wrong.

a.       I personally have strong objection on the language used by political leaders. It gives a very wrong image to new voters.  Remember, national leaders must and must have decency. Thankfully, number of such leaders were no very high.

b.      Ruling UPA failed to impress and they will be responsible for weak opposition.  There were completely missing in plans and there prime leaders were out of the field. It would have been better if they would have come with promises and promises to punish the scam stars.

c.       My third point is most worrying some for me. We all know that a major part of India votes on caste and such related mean. This time, new voters have voted but major part of such youth has lesser political knowledge.  This is based on my personal observation on personal meeting and different interaction sources. Many of my friends may dis-agree with me. I am happy if I am wrong here.

Do you how most Indian are voting? This is most bitter answer.

Their sole objective is “My vote should not be wasted”.  I always believe that there is nothing absolutely right or absolutely wrong in democracy. Still, people need to be less emotional and should try to pick who is right for you in your constituency.

I study the economic cycles. It shows this fact – “It does not matter who form the government, he/She will face extremely high troubles in running the government.” The fate of upcoming government is to face extremely tough economic climate. Long back, people used to ask me if we can see mid-term poll before 2014 or not. My answer was – “I do not know if we can have midterm poll before 2014 or not but chances are bright for midterm for post 2014 election.”

I can take a better call after may 16^th.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

09 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bull market has no reason to retrench more than 50% to 61.80%. If it violate then it will be tougher to see any rally on or after poll result day. 6599-6580 must save and bounce.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 09 May 2014: -

On 08 May 2014, FII Bought INR 363.24 crs and DII Sold INR 119.90 crs

Yesterday was also a dead day with favour towards bears only. Let me explain the chart as I have given. Firstly, I am considering that rise from 6432 to 6869 was a part of bulls run which secular trend. In fact, this was most defined Bull Run after breakout. So, if trend wants to advance then it should not retrench by more than 50% or 61.80%. The defined zone comes from 6650 to 6599 levels.

What is the market message now? I need to say that now market is waiting for Monday evening when ‘Exit poll’ outcome hit. Wave theory is giving support in the zone of 6650 to 6599 and we are getting an event set up now.

So, it may be another dead day. There is no reason for the end of optimism on political outcome. Only question is, “Will NDA get enough seats to form a stable government?” With small doubt, I need to say that yes, NDA may be more than magic figure of 272. My speculation gives me 240 to 254 seats to BJP only. Although, it will beyond the scope of this article to comment more than that.

Technical charts are still suggesting for crucial support at 6650 to 6640 levels. On higher side, it needs to sustain above 6740 to 6750 to register further gain which is way far now. In the downside, break below 6640 will give us levels like 6599-6580.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is showing weakness but opening will be better than what it shows. It can take positive to flat opening somewhere near to 6690 levels. Yesterday’s high point of 6720 will be crucial point now. Crossover of 6720 will generate something better. If not then break below 6655 will bring Nifty future near to 6620 also. Note that premium value has shrink by just 20 points.

S&P 500 (USA) – On Monday I have quoted that this week will be crucial and if it has to make a new all-time high it must come by this week. We saw a high at 1889 yesterday and then a sharp reversal. What is market message now? Very clearly, if it breaks 50 DMA then it will begin its most awaited ‘May sell off’. This mode may turn out to be very brutal for market. So, for today, support stand at 1864 to 1860. Today is last trading day of the week so some decisive moves may come. 

08 May 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6650-6640 is a support and market is almost testing here. Recovery should come in this zone and it must go above 20 DMA, i.e. 6740-6750. If not then it will be alarming before election outcome !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 May 2014: -

On 07 May 2014, FII Bought INR 119.11 crs and DII Sold INR 258.88 crs

Nifty hit and closed on dot near 6650 levels. We are now eight sessions away from its all-time high. Worse part is that out of these eight days Nifty has spent below 20 DAM for five days in a row. In normal circumstances this is a bearish set up. Just because this is near to election out days I am naming it only as cautious sell off.

I can tell you that it has happened in the year May 2009 also. It had consolidated and given all sense for shorting but finally a massive gap up came. Equally, in that time it has never broken 20 DMA. This is making me little worried. Nifty must stand above 20 DMA to conclude for any rise on May 16^th. To get any rise on 16^th May it must build a primary bullish trend.

I am still giving edge to bulls. Technical charts are suggesting for just two important supports, one is at 6650 and another at 6580. The best way to build an up day is, ‘take a gap up and close at high point’ and if that high point goes above 20 DMA then who can stop bulls. I can say just one thing for sure, “If Nifty fails to move above 20 DMA then there will be nothing positive on 16^th May. It does not matter what the outcome of election is.” This must be a desperate situation for bulls. Today or tomorrow must be the last day for bulls to show power. If not then, there cannot be anything to trade positive.

Technical charts are still suggesting for crucial support at 6650 to 6640 levels. On higher side, it needs to sustain above 6740 to 6750 to register further gain which is way far now. In the downside, break below 6640 will give us levels like 6580.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty May future – We may see some optimistic opening as it was depressed close yesterday. It may open near to 6700 levels. After that, it can able to move higher only if it can show some life above 6710 levels. This is decisive levels. If bulls do not come at these levels then it shows that bulls has lesser conviction. Let us see what is coming.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said yesterday that either, it will save 1864 and move higher today or it will top out and sell off begin. Now, both have happened on same trading session. It has broken 50 DMA also and then moved higher to closer stronger. I still believe that before “May sell off” one life time high should come. What was impressive in yesterday’s recovery is that it has closed well above 1872-1874 levels. Now, we have full possibility of one day of big rise and this may be today. I do not prefer to short S&P in this kind of set up which looks so tempting. Just think, how many people would have added short when it was below 50 DMA yesterday.